Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[JPWX]

Yeah the little MCS the 00z HRRR has seems a little far fetched. Will be interesting to see what 00z 3km NAM has

 

[jiharris0220]

no I mean it's a good example because it shows what can happen when you have that secondary surface low really backing the low-level winds and creating a stronger LLJ. you get that LLJ cranking and you're gonna have strong enough advection to recover that airmass PDQ.

This is why long wave trough setups are dangerously particularly in Dixie alley, if atmospheric angular momentum is low and the long wave hands around long enough it creates height falls which causes a weak surface low to develop underneath the lead baroclinic cyclone.

It’s these weak surface lows that are mainly responsible for these rare and dangerous Dixie alley tornado outbreaks.

 

[Kds86z]

This is why long wave trough setups are dangerously particularly in Dixie alley, if atmospheric angular momentum is low and the long wave hands around long enough it creates height falls which causes a weak surface low to develop underneath the lead baroclinic cyclone.

It’s these weak surface lows that are mainly responsible for these rare and dangerous Dixie alley tornado outbreaks.

Thank you for this !

 

[Maxis_s]

Alright FV3 take your meds

 

[Richardjacks]

I’ll like to remind everyone that this is Dixie valley, and that in potent setups like this, morning convection matters little. Hate to compare 2011 here but an entire MCS moved through the warm sector and yet rapid recovery occurred.

Point being.
View attachment 35381

It was also late April with sunshine, not mid March.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Morning convection moving north mid morning sat, could hamper instability for central alabama in the afternoon. That may prevent high day2

Praise Jesus a shred of good news!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 35389
Alright FV3 take your meds

0Z HRRR also has simulated supercells well into the overnight Friday-Saturday from KY down to the central MS/AL line.

It also joined the 12Z HRW-WRFs in sending a (presumably tornadic) simulated supercell right through St. Louis around 02-03Z Saturday (Friday evening local time).

 

[jiharris0220]

It was also late April with sunshine, not mid March.

I know that, my point was to let people know that when a proto surface low is involved that atmospheric recovery can happen fast in this area.

 

[Kds86z]

If this outbreak doesn’t happen Mother Nature is gonna laugh at the length of this thread .

 

[lake.effect]

Looks like NAM isn't biting on the morning MCS...except big numbers from this run...

 

[andyhb]

00z HRRR is a major outbreak both tomorrow and Saturday. Absolutely insane run.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'm just hoping I have enough time to nap after work tommorow, so I can be up early Saturday morning if we have a couple of supercells kick off in south Alabama and move north. Maybe 24 hours of no sleep for me

 

[tornado examiner]

Looks like NAM isn't biting on the morning MCS...except big numbers from this run...

Nam disagreement

 

[OhOkayThen]

Yeah from all runs so far tonight, Friday night may need a tornado-driven moderate going deeper into Western KY and down into Western TN. The cells aren't outrunning the instability pool as fast as earlier thought.

 

[Justin Hindman]

It was also late April with sunshine, not mid March.

Not only that, the convection cleared the state by 7 am and the atmosphere had 8 hours to recover . If the hrr is right, it will not hav enough time imo

 

[TheSuckZone]

If this outbreak doesn’t happen Mother Nature is gonna laugh at the length of this thread .

Let's hope she has a hell of a laugh then

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Not only that, the convection cleared the state by 7 am and the atmosphere had 8 hours to recover . If the hrr is right, it will not hav enough time imo

it recovers in like 3hrs bro like dixie moment

 

[eosaurora13]

Let's hope she has a hell of a laugh then

I'm in the moderate risk on Saturday. She can laugh as long and hard as she can.

 

[Maxis_s]

Impressive uptrend on the NAM.

 

[Justin Hindman]

it recovers in like 3hrs bro like dixie moment

Just because the rain moves out doesn’t pop the sun out five minutes after the rain is gone. But it’s one run, let’s see if the mcs even happens