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Severe Weather Threat 3/13-3/15/2024

cincywx

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stopped paying attention yesterday afternoon when it became apparent that hail would win out and well, looks like i missed out. thankfully for folks in the hatched area today, im now paying attention, so nothing of significance will occur. :D
 
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What's the chances of this affecting western outskirts of St. Louis? I was supposed to be at a business conference there starting Thursday, but couldn't make it. I'm in leadership, though, so if there's a possibility I need to give them a heads up on what to do in case.

Following up on this since I realized I never did; definitely tell your people out there to stay weather aware this afternoon/evening. A lot of runs of the HRRR have been putting some intense simulated supercells through the St. Louis area then. Tornado threat is a bit uncertain there IMO due to straight-line hodographs on most of the forecast soundings in that vicinity, although there is a decent amount of 0-3KM CAPE. At the least, significant large hail would be a threat.

*Actually, St. Louis is under a severe thunderstorm watch right now, with some warned cells to the west, although they look to be weakening at the moment**

**Edit again; that could just be because St. Louis radar is down (naturally) and KSGF is only kissing them at about 20,000' and up.
 

MichelleH

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Following up on this since I realized I never did; definitely tell your people out there to stay weather aware this afternoon/evening. A lot of runs of the HRRR have been putting some intense simulated supercells through the St. Louis area then. Tornado threat is a bit uncertain there IMO due to straight-line hodographs on most of the forecast soundings in that vicinity, although there is a decent amount of 0-3KM CAPE. At the least, significant large hail would be a threat.

*Actually, St. Louis is under a severe thunderstorm watch right now, with some warned cells to the west, although they look to be weakening at the moment**

**Edit again; that could just be because St. Louis radar is down (naturally) and KSGF is only kissing them at about 20,000' and up.

Thank you. After looking at things this morning, I went ahead and sent a message. I'm assuming the hotel where the conference is held has a protocol to follow, but it's our members who haven't arrived yet (it starts this evening) or those will be "out and about" tonight and not paying attention that I'm worried about. I think I'm the only person in the entire group who follows the weather. I've been made fun of before, until there were times I let a few of them know a tornado was heading for their house. They haven't teased me since then.
 

cincywx

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threat has done nothing but increase in my neck of the woods over the last 12 hours, and 12z hrrr was very concerning along the ohio river. the last two runs have been more relieving, but im already sitting 65/53 with sun. hopefully this first line of storms works over the atmosphere enough.
 
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