ashtonlemleywx
Member
I'm all in on tmrws storm chase. Headed to Arkansas in the morning.
Confirmed tornado now.New hook on the northern storm.
Yeah got my eye on that latest hrrr wanting go pretty crazy on discrete super cells … see they can cross the Ms. River
Yep. Big day today. Glad I'm getting off early today, I think will see some nasty stuff on radar this afternoon/evening.10% hatched tor for a large area now, includes Little Rock and Fort Smith. A lot of AR mets are taking this very seriously so far.
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What's the chances of this affecting western outskirts of St. Louis? I was supposed to be at a business conference there starting Thursday, but couldn't make it. I'm in leadership, though, so if there's a possibility I need to give them a heads up on what to do in case.
Following up on this since I realized I never did; definitely tell your people out there to stay weather aware this afternoon/evening. A lot of runs of the HRRR have been putting some intense simulated supercells through the St. Louis area then. Tornado threat is a bit uncertain there IMO due to straight-line hodographs on most of the forecast soundings in that vicinity, although there is a decent amount of 0-3KM CAPE. At the least, significant large hail would be a threat.
*Actually, St. Louis is under a severe thunderstorm watch right now, with some warned cells to the west, although they look to be weakening at the moment**
**Edit again; that could just be because St. Louis radar is down (naturally) and KSGF is only kissing them at about 20,000' and up.