Severe Weather Threat 3/13-3/15/2024

[Shakespeare 2016]

I do not think that the Taco Bell is indicative of EF-4 damage. You have what looks to be a half-height interior wall that survived as well as some other interior items. I think there's a construction quality issue here somewhere, and those anchor bolts might be playing a very deceiving role. I'd argue the contextual damage bolsters the idea that there was a construction quality issue or design flaw.

I haven't looked at a lot of other damage for this tornado, however, the Taco Bell damage seems deceptive to me for a variety of reasons.

I completely understand the angst caused by modern applications of the EF scale but this doesn't appear to be one of those head-scratching types of cases at all.

Yeah, i understand what you are saying and if there is a construction flaw then why not go with a value near the lower bound instead of a value that is only a couple miles away from the expected value?

 

[Clancy]

What an intellectual convo I’m reading.
Back on topic, I’m actually stumped on why the NWS risk area in Ohio failed so miserably on the favorability of the environment.
Because looking back at the mesos, there was more than enough effective helicity and the low level lapse rates were well over 6c per km. CAPE was in the 2000s and that’s literally where the greatest bulk shear was located.
View attachment 24394
The 200mb jet streak was creating the strongest divergence/lift in Indiana and Ohio, so I can’t for the life of me guess why the highest risk wasn’t designated here.

A few people have mentioned that CAMs handled the Ohio Valley portion of the event poorly until just a few hours before, but the globals were performing fairly well throughout the duration of the event. Admittedly, I wasn't paying attention to the globals the day of, so I missed these details. It's possible that they assumed the northern extent of the risk would remain somewhat convectively inhibited, seeing as during the early onset of the day there was relatively sparse activity. That being said, I was surprised that there was never much of an extension or enhancement of the risk in that area, at least for tornadoes, only ever dragging the 5% risk eastwards. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but yeah, I was a bit puzzled by the late-day updates to the outlook, when strong tornadoes were actively occurring, well outside the primary risk area.

 

[andyhb]

This location with a home completely destroyed is missing on DAT for the Winchester tornado (west of town). Probably still under review.

40°10'16.1"N 85°02'58.3"W

www.google.com

 

[Marios Wallace]

Honestly, I am having issues recalling the last tornado that swept away a drive-thru, standalone, fast-food building that was built like the stereotype below this badly. I thought about Joplin Burger King however it still had one exterior wall remaining and didn't seem as well built. This might be a case the EF scale hasn't encountered in the 17 years we've used it, which is ironic because we're upgrading to a new scale in a few years. It might be why this location in particular is of interest to survey teams, especially with the similar nature of destruction that was seen from Harrisburg during its initial stint of violent intensity in the business district. Ultimately similar case here due to contextual damage being the same level down the line rather than across the track perpendicularly.

No matter what this gets, it's a highly interesting case I think a lot of people should look at, it really helps describe the structure of this particular tornado, and how intense the narrow core was despite what videos showed.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Honestly, I am having issues recalling the last tornado that swept away a drive-thru, standalone, fast-food building that was built like the stereotype below this badly. I thought about Joplin Burger King however it still had one exterior wall remaining and didn't seem as well built. This might be a case the EF scale hasn't encountered in the 17 years we've used it, which is ironic because we're upgrading to a new scale in a few years. It might be why this location in particular is of interest to survey teams, especially with the similar nature of destruction that was seen from Harrisburg during its initial stint of violent intensity in the business district. Ultimately similar case here due to contextual damage being the same level down the line rather than across the track perpendicularly.

No matter what this gets, it's a highly interesting case I think a lot of people should look at, it really helps describe the structure of this particular tornado, and how intense the narrow core was despite what videos showed. View attachment 24400View attachment 24401

I am now wondering how long tracked this tornado was.i also have no doubt in my mind that a narrow vortex completely destroyed that Taco Bell.

 

[Marios Wallace]

If it was truly the same tornado that impacted Bradford Ohio a while later like surveyors think it did, it would probably have a path length of at least 46 miles. Which isn't out of the realm of insanity for these early season intense-violent tornadoes.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

If it was truly the same tornado that impacted Bradford Ohio a while later like surveyors think it did, it would probably have a path length of at least 46 miles. Which isn't out of the realm of insanity for these early season intense-violent tornadoes.View attachment 24402

46 miles is still a pretty long tracked tornado but like you said it is not uncommon to see long tracked intense to violent tornadoes early in the season. In fact that would be the same as the Andover 1991 tornado. I checked temperatures and dewpoints for Winchester, IN for that day as the tornado was occurring. The temperature was 67.0°F and the dewpoint was 61.0°F. Almost the entire track of the Tri-State tornado had temperatures in the mid 60s and dews in the upper 50s to low 60s. At one point the temperature was like 62.0°F and the dewpoint was 56.0°F and it wasn't till the end of the track the temperature reached 70.0°F.

 

[UK_EF4]

Looks quite intense, including the tree damage.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Looks quite intense, including the tree damage.

Hmmm!! It looks like those 2 homes were almost entirely swept away. However, there is no way to determine if those two homee were well-constructed. I will let others have their opinion since I must not have a clue on how tornadoes are rated even though I have been looking at tornado damage for20+ years. Also is that third picture of broken bricks and granulated debris.

 

[TH2002]

Hmmm!! It looks like those 2 homes were almost entirely swept away. However, there is no way to determine if those two homee were well-constructed. I will let others have their opinion since I must not have a clue on how tornadoes are rated even though I have been looking at tornado damage for20+ years. Also is that third picture of broken bricks and granulated debris.

No. I'm sure some of the bricks are broken in two but those are most likely clay bricks. They're far easier to break in half than you might think, especially if they're old and brittle. Nothing even close to significant debris granulation.

 

[Marios Wallace]

46 miles is still a pretty long tracked tornado but like you said it is not uncommon to see long tracked intense to violent tornadoes early in the season. In fact that would be the same as the Andover 1991 tornado. I checked temperatures and dewpoints for Winchester, IN for that day as the tornado was occurring. The temperature was 67.0°F and the dewpoint was 61.0°F. Almost the entire track of the Tri-State tornado had temperatures in the mid 60s and dews in the upper 50s to low 60s. At one point the temperature was like 62.0°F and the dewpoint was 56.0°F and it wasn't till the end of the track the temperature reached 70.0°F.

I stated that 46 miles or more is not out of realm of insanity for intense - violent tornadoes in the early season. I was not stating that long-tracked, violent tornadoes are normal. However, chances are that if a tornado is higher-end intense or violent in the early season, the likelihood is that it's long-tracked too. These early season setups are usually heavily kinematically supported and they allow for healthier storm organization and often quicker movements especially if higher amounts of instability were involved like what we had on the 14th.

 

[TH2002]

Thought I'd assemble a collection of (IMO) good footage from this outbreak:

Alta Vista, KS


Lakeview, OH


Winchester, IN

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

so far there have been 3 long tracked tornadoes confirmed from March 14th. Pretty crazy for a 5% tornado risk day. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_March_13–15,_2024

 

[tornado examiner]

Now all we’re waiting for is the final rating for winchester

 

[tornado examiner]

Okay…looks like Winchester is gonna remain a high end ef3