Yeah, i understand what you are saying and if there is a construction flaw then why not go with a value near the lower bound instead of a value that is only a couple miles away from the expected value?
A few people have mentioned that CAMs handled the Ohio Valley portion of the event poorly until just a few hours before, but the globals were performing fairly well throughout the duration of the event. Admittedly, I wasn't paying attention to the globals the day of, so I missed these details. It's possible that they assumed the northern extent of the risk would remain somewhat convectively inhibited, seeing as during the early onset of the day there was relatively sparse activity. That being said, I was surprised that there was never much of an extension or enhancement of the risk in that area, at least for tornadoes, only ever dragging the 5% risk eastwards. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but yeah, I was a bit puzzled by the late-day updates to the outlook, when strong tornadoes were actively occurring, well outside the primary risk area.
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I am now wondering how long tracked this tornado was.i also have no doubt in my mind that a narrow vortex completely destroyed that Taco Bell.
46 miles is still a pretty long tracked tornado but like you said it is not uncommon to see long tracked intense to violent tornadoes early in the season. In fact that would be the same as the Andover 1991 tornado. I checked temperatures and dewpoints for Winchester, IN for that day as the tornado was occurring. The temperature was 67.0°F and the dewpoint was 61.0°F. Almost the entire track of the Tri-State tornado had temperatures in the mid 60s and dews in the upper 50s to low 60s. At one point the temperature was like 62.0°F and the dewpoint was 56.0°F and it wasn't till the end of the track the temperature reached 70.0°F.
No. I'm sure some of the bricks are broken in two but those are most likely clay bricks. They're far easier to break in half than you might think, especially if they're old and brittle. Nothing even close to significant debris granulation.
I stated that 46 miles or more is not out of realm of insanity for intense - violent tornadoes in the early season. I was not stating that long-tracked, violent tornadoes are normal. However, chances are that if a tornado is higher-end intense or violent in the early season, the likelihood is that it's long-tracked too. These early season setups are usually heavily kinematically supported and they allow for healthier storm organization and often quicker movements especially if higher amounts of instability were involved like what we had on the 14th.
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