Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 2/6/17-2/8/17 (1 Viewer)


HazardousWx

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Wondering if today will bring any severe weather to the North Alabama area. Doesn't look too impressive outside. Overcast and foggy attm.
 

Lori

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Wondering if today will bring any severe weather to the North Alabama area. Doesn't look too impressive outside. Overcast and foggy attm.
My temps bounced back to the 60's....I've only seen the map I posted....I'm going to read some blogs...
 

stormcentral

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Current conditons across southeast TN. Mid to upper 60's, overcast with peeks of sunshine. My coverage area is under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms from around 5PM-midnight this evening. Dewpoint is 64



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stormcentral

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An upper-level trough over the Central Plains will continue to intensify as it as it shifts east into Tennessee later this evening. A cold front will accompany this feature and trigger some scattered showers and thunderstorms by late this afternoon and early evening over the Plateau -- which will spread east across the Tennessee Valley this evening through midnight. The main question for tonight will be -- how unstable can the atmosphere get by late afternoon/evening before initiation begins. Do think that cloud cover will begin to diminish across the southern/central Valley between 18-21z, allowing for some insolation and destabilization there until sunset. However, there is still some uncertainty as to if that will occur. Model soundings support hail (given the steep lapse rates and cooler mid-level temps) and localized damaging winds with the strongest activity in this scenario and thus SPC has outlooked most of the CWA in a slight risk.

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Richardjacks

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I am wondering if the low clouds causing cooler temps on the east side of the state might cause a little more low level turning or shear later this afternoon especially for central sections of the state if the clearing trend continues to spread east from Miss.
 

stormcentral

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Severe storm threat continues across southeast TN as temps have warmed in the upper 60's to near 70. Dewpoints are in upper 50's to near 60. Shortwave is approaching. Storm development expected here 5PM to after midnight.

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Taylor Campbell

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Good forecast discussion from BMX

.DISCUSSION...

A low stratus deck remains in place across much of the forecast
area this morning, but there is quite a bit of clearing developing
over southwest Alabama and Mississippi. Dew points are already in
the low 60s. Southwesterly low- level flow should help the
stratus deck to continue to gradually erode. Most areas should
remain dry/capped during the day today with only a small chance of
an isolated shower. Late this afternoon and early this evening,
models indicate a broken line of showers and thunderstorms
developing along the cold front to our northwest as height falls
and lift associated with a shortwave overspread the region. CAMs
indicate some embedded supercells/
updraft helicity with this
activity as well. In addition, a 100
kt northwesterly mid- level
jet streak will move in indicating some fairly impressive
dynamics.

Winds at the surface will be southwesterly with some slight
backing to SSW possible in the surface pressure trough. Decent
low-level veering/turning will be present, though, from southwest
winds at low-levels to northwest flow at mid- levels. This results
in decent 0-1 km shear and around 200 m2/s2 of helicity and curved
low-level hodographs. Therefore, have added in a low confidence
mention of an isolated brief tornado or two being possible along
with damaging winds and hail. The southern extent of the threat is
uncertain as upper- level forcing will decrease to the south, but
dew points will be a bit higher down there (mid 60s), and most
models indicate some precipitation. Therefore we have expanded the
limited threat to cover the whole area. Overall this is a low-end
/low-confidence severe threat, but these northwest
flow events do
have the tendency to over-perform at times.
 

South AL Wx

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Does anyone else have issues with the FFC radar not updating on RadarScope?
000
NOUS62 KFFC 072039
FTMFFC
Message Date: Feb 07 2017 20:43:51

The KFFC radar is running a burn-in test phase and is not operational. External
communications from the radar are not available during this phase. NWS, FAA and
DoD users will have access to the data while in this phase but there may be erro
rs or bad data at times. The radar will also continue to run in VCP21 only. This
burn-in phase will continue until at least tomorrow afternoon.
 

Taylor Campbell

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000
NOUS62 KFFC 072039
FTMFFC
Message Date: Feb 07 2017 20:43:51

The KFFC radar is running a burn-in test phase and is not operational. External
communications from the radar are not available during this phase. NWS, FAA and
DoD users will have access to the data while in this phase but there may be erro
rs or bad data at times. The radar will also continue to run in VCP21 only. This
burn-in phase will continue until at least tomorrow afternoon.
Thank you sir. Hopefully, it'll be finished soon.
 

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