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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 2/6/17-2/8/17 (1 Viewer)


Taylor Campbell

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Plenty of variations showing on models in the jet configuration, and with other stuff, but there's a threat for a wide area with any. The GFS has shown several point soundings supportive of tornadoes in MS, AL, and TN late Tuesday.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 031000
SPC AC 031000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2017

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Substantial run-to-run and model-to-model variability is once again
evident within the latest medium-range model runs, even as early as
late in the Day 4 (Monday) time frame. In an overall/very broad
perspective, convective potential should begin to increase across
roughly the mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys late Day 4, then spreading
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and possibly the central Gulf
coastal region Day 5 (Tuesday), and finally across the Appalachians
and East Coast States during the day Wednesday (Day 6). This will
occur as short-wave troughing shifts out of the Rockies and eastward
into the eastern half of the U.S. where amplification into a
larger-scale trough is expected to occur. Corresponding evolution
of a surface storm system which will progress eastward across the
region will likely allow fairly widespread warm-sector showers and
thunderstorms to occur during this roughly 48-hour time period.

With that said, confidence in the ability to highlight specific
areas -- and degree -- of risk remains low, due to the
aforementioned difficulty exhibited by the models in depicting a
consistent evolution of the pertinent features -- both at the
surface and aloft. While at least a low-probability severe risk
will likely be highlighted in future outlooks within an area roughly
bounded by the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on the north and
west, and the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on the south and east, in the
late Monday through Wednesday afternoon time frame,
uncertainty/predictability issues preclude areal highlights at this
time.

..Goss.. 02/03/2017
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
As does the Euro but it's not as bullish as the GFS. GFS would indicate a higher end threat with another loaded warm sector when you account for the GFS improperly handling the boundary layer.

Storm mode with this looks highly discrete.
 

Richardjacks

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Hoover, Al
I was just thinking it was time for a thread for this period. Still lots to figure out but as with the last event in parts of the southeast, the instability could become quite high for this time of the year.
 

Taylor Campbell

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As does the Euro but it's not as bullish as the GFS. GFS would indicate a higher end threat with another loaded warm sector when you account for the GFS improperly handling the boundary layer.

Storm mode with this looks highly discrete.
You also have 0-1km, 0-3km, and effective SRH readings near or in excess of 400 m2/s2.
 

Taylor Campbell

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I'm not sure I believe the low 60 surface temperatures that the GFS shows in northern MS, AL, and southern TN. Nor the cooling 850mb temps.
 

PerryW

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It looks very interesting. Doesn't scream major tornado outbreak, but with such strong a large, deep surface low (18z GFS 978 MB/ 12Z ECMWF 982 MB) over Michigan, and associated strong wind fields aloft, significant/ widespread wind damage and isolated tornadoes are a distinct possibility....from the Ohio/ Tennessee river valleys southward to LA/ MS/ AL/ GA.
 
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Northside Atlanta
It looks very interesting. Doesn't scream major tornado outbreak, but with such strong a large, deep surface low (18z GFS 978 MB/ 12Z ECMWF 982 MB) over Michigan, and associated strong wind fields aloft, significant/ widespread wind damage and isolated tornadoes are a distinct possibility....from the Ohio/ Tennessee river valleys southward to LA/ MS/ AL/ GA.

Thanks Perry. Glad to have your input here as well :)
 

Kory

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The tornado threat looks minimal at best
Yeah, tornado threat is going to be limited given the confined warm sector and veered surface winds. But, after all, this is Dixie, and we've seen storms produce in even the most marginal conditions.

One thing for sure, this will not be a linear event. Storm mode appears very cellular or storm clusters. Don't write this one off, but no, this won't be an upper echelon outbreak.
 

stormcentral

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SKYWARN® Volunteer,
Yeah, tornado threat is going to be limited given the confined warm sector and veered surface winds. But, after all, this is Dixie, and we've seen storms produce in even the most marginal conditions.

One thing for sure, this will not be a linear event. Storm mode appears very cellular or storm clusters. Don't write this one off, but no, this won't be an upper echelon outbreak.
Thank you for your input. I always follow you especially during severe weather. Any ideas on southeast TN for tuesday afternoon and evening?

Sent from my LGLS770 using TalkWeather mobile app
 

Taylor Campbell

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We'll just have to see what happens. There's still differences from run to run on the models. I've noticed the GFS back off on the SRH values, but also up the instability. I've also seen a lot of point soundings with analog matches for supercells. That's something interesting.
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
We'll just have to see what happens. There's still differences from run to run on the models. I've noticed the GFS back off on the SRH values, but also up the instability. I've also seen a lot of point soundings with analog matches for supercells. That's something interesting.
I'm noting the southern stream shortwave that models had shearing out is more defined in recent runs as it approaches the region. Have noticed an uptick in instability and kinematics on the models. Another round looks possible Wednesday afternoon but first let's get through Tuesday afternoon first.
 

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