- Moderator
- #1
Plenty of variations showing on models in the jet configuration, and with other stuff, but there's a threat for a wide area with any. The GFS has shown several point soundings supportive of tornadoes in MS, AL, and TN late Tuesday.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 031000
SPC AC 031000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2017
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Substantial run-to-run and model-to-model variability is once again
evident within the latest medium-range model runs, even as early as
late in the Day 4 (Monday) time frame. In an overall/very broad
perspective, convective potential should begin to increase across
roughly the mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys late Day 4, then spreading
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and possibly the central Gulf
coastal region Day 5 (Tuesday), and finally across the Appalachians
and East Coast States during the day Wednesday (Day 6). This will
occur as short-wave troughing shifts out of the Rockies and eastward
into the eastern half of the U.S. where amplification into a
larger-scale trough is expected to occur. Corresponding evolution
of a surface storm system which will progress eastward across the
region will likely allow fairly widespread warm-sector showers and
thunderstorms to occur during this roughly 48-hour time period.
With that said, confidence in the ability to highlight specific
areas -- and degree -- of risk remains low, due to the
aforementioned difficulty exhibited by the models in depicting a
consistent evolution of the pertinent features -- both at the
surface and aloft. While at least a low-probability severe risk
will likely be highlighted in future outlooks within an area roughly
bounded by the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on the north and
west, and the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on the south and east, in the
late Monday through Wednesday afternoon time frame,
uncertainty/predictability issues preclude areal highlights at this
time.
..Goss.. 02/03/2017
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 031000
SPC AC 031000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2017
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Substantial run-to-run and model-to-model variability is once again
evident within the latest medium-range model runs, even as early as
late in the Day 4 (Monday) time frame. In an overall/very broad
perspective, convective potential should begin to increase across
roughly the mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys late Day 4, then spreading
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and possibly the central Gulf
coastal region Day 5 (Tuesday), and finally across the Appalachians
and East Coast States during the day Wednesday (Day 6). This will
occur as short-wave troughing shifts out of the Rockies and eastward
into the eastern half of the U.S. where amplification into a
larger-scale trough is expected to occur. Corresponding evolution
of a surface storm system which will progress eastward across the
region will likely allow fairly widespread warm-sector showers and
thunderstorms to occur during this roughly 48-hour time period.
With that said, confidence in the ability to highlight specific
areas -- and degree -- of risk remains low, due to the
aforementioned difficulty exhibited by the models in depicting a
consistent evolution of the pertinent features -- both at the
surface and aloft. While at least a low-probability severe risk
will likely be highlighted in future outlooks within an area roughly
bounded by the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on the north and
west, and the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on the south and east, in the
late Monday through Wednesday afternoon time frame,
uncertainty/predictability issues preclude areal highlights at this
time.
..Goss.. 02/03/2017
