Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

TornadoFan17 said:
Can't believe I'm saying this, but >95/80 almost feels... conservative
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Not really. It's one thing to have tornadoes early in the day, but wind fields/etc. need to sustain supercells for the rest of the day.
 
andyhb said:
Not really. It's one thing to have tornadoes early in the day, but wind fields/etc. need to sustain supercells for the rest of the day.
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Strongest SRH are already mostly present east of LA, and will intensify into MS as the evening goes on, so LA may not be the focal point of this event. In any case, 95/80 is a really robust set of probs for any watch.
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andyhb said:
I have also yet to see any cells in the open warm sector become strongly tornadic. Wind fields seem a bit off for that yet.
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Good to see you on here. Been awhile since I've seen a post from you.
 
jiharris0220 said:
4000+ surface CAPE with 3km CAPE being over 200J/kg.
View attachment 32183
Many central plain April setups never had numbers this high, let alone Dixie alley in late December.

That’s what happens when you have surface temps and dew points in the 70s with tropospheric temps below freezing just above 700mb.
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Looking again at that sounding, while the CAPE is indeed eye-popping, the shear (particularly the SRH) is rather...underwhelming.

I do have to wonder if the shear has increased since that sounding was made. If it has (especially by a substantial amount), then we will indeed be in for a long day. If not, then that's one possible failure mode that could keep things from going too crazy later today. We'll just have to see what happens...
 
Not like it matters much at all but the reasoning behind why no high risk was issued is because the impending qlcs and messy storm mode.

The messy storm mode isn’t unfavorable because it’s messy but it’s due because of mass cold pooling.

This causes storms to become outflow dominant especially if the vertical wind profile is more parallel/linear.

And this parallel vertical wind profile is what the qlcs can owe its existence too along with it’s associated cold front.

So despite the longitudinally large warm sector, supercells don’t actually have as much time as they could’ve to establish themselves to produce long track violent tornadoes.

Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but there’s definitely not enough confidence of it happening to warrant a high risk, again, not like it matters though in the grand scheme of things.
 
Tennie said:
Looking again at that sounding, while the CAPE is indeed eye-popping, the shear (particularly the SRH) is rather...underwhelming.

I do have to wonder if the shear has increased since that sounding was made. If it has (especially by a substantial amount), then we will indeed be in for a long day. If not, then that's one possible failure mode that could keep things from going too crazy later today. We'll just have to see what happens...
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Fairly common spectacle for Dixie events, where afternoon kinematics aren't 100%. Later this evening, energy will eject towards MS, and there will likely be an intensification of wind fields.
1735418039210.png
 
jiharris0220 said:
Not like it matters much at all but the reasoning behind why no high risk was issued is because the impending qlcs and messy storm mode.

The messy storm mode isn’t unfavorable because it’s messy but it’s due because of mass cold pooling.

This causes storms to become outflow dominant especially if the vertical wind profile is more parallel/linear.

And this parallel vertical wind profile is what the qlcs can owe its existence too along with it’s associated cold front.

So despite the longitudinally large warm sector, supercells don’t actually have as much time as they could’ve to establish themselves to produce long track violent tornadoes.

Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but there’s definitely not enough confidence of it happening to warrant a high risk, again, not like it matters though in the grand scheme of things.
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Good call against a high risk with that reasoning IMO. It doesn’t take much for this to hopefully end up being a “b-word” for the rest of the day, but as of right now it looks quite unlikely.
 
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