Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

[Clancy]

When was the last time this year we saw the words “tornado outbreak “ in a day 1?

It happens when confidence is high; I don't know when/if they've used that wording during a December event. 12/10 did not feature this language, for example.

 

[Kds86z]

It happens when confidence is high; I don't know when/if they've used that wording during a December event. 12/10 did not feature this language, for example.

Yeah for sure.

 

[MMWX]

Bullish outlook - really hope it doesn't verify. Wouldn't be surprised to see northward and eastward expansions to the risk areas later. Threatens to be one of the most significant severe events for the Deep South in recent memory in December. Trey says updated discussion from him coming this morning.

Very bullish outlook. I was not expecting the MDT to be so large. Also would not be surprised to see the ENH potentially up to the MS/TN state line in the next update.

 

[Clancy]

Most recent mention of an outbreak on a D1 in December I could find was at the 1630Z outlook for 12/23/2015, though it didn't refer exclusively to a tornado outbreak, but rather a severe weather outbreak more generally. Could absolutely be missing things, though, it was a cursory glance.

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW
INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Wednesday December 23, 2015

 

[SmokeEater]

Jesus, that's one of the strongest worded day 1's I've seen in a long time.

 

[Clancy]

To bed I go; admittedly there is a bit of stomach-churning after reading the discussion. Anxious to see where we're at in the morning.

 

[Kds86z]

Keep in mind, we are close to surpassing 2008 in regard to confirmed tornado reports. If we get an outbreak tomorrow 2024 will be #3. Just climatology nerding. At the time Trey did this, but now we’re at 1650-1660 after yesterday.

 

[slenker]

05z HRRR is gnarly with two bands of discrete supercells.

 

[JBishopwx]

Long day tomorrow...

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

OMG!!!! That is the best way I can put it.

 

[KevinH]

Would not be surprised if the MOD and ENH is expanding further north and/or east.

This is going to teach people (again) not to sleep on winter events. *sigh*

 

[slenker]

Any other failure modes other than crapvection here?

 

[Equus]

Wow that escalated pretty fast; from questions on morning mode to high enough confidence on warm sector mayhem for that strong a worded outlook. Been a long time since most in the outlook area had severe weather, hope everyone has their warning sources up and running

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Would not be surprised if the MOD and ENH is expanding further north and/or east.

This is going to teach people (again) not to sleep on winter events. *sigh*

Nocturnal intense to violent tornadoes are typically lethal. People should take this situation very seriously.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

07Z HRRR has a discrete cell with a big UH streak taking something disturbingly similar to the Rolling Fork path most of the way across Mississippi.

 

[cg9450]

Yikes, this situations makes me want to puke.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

07Z HRRR has a discrete cell with a big UH streak taking something disturbingly similar to the Rolling Fork path most of the way across Mississippi.

The ones that produce a family of significant to violent tornadoes. I hope people in LA/MS/AL are taking this situation very seriously.

 

[warneagle]

Well that escalated quickly. I know it’s Broyles but still.

 

[KevinH]

Wow that escalated pretty fast; from questions on morning mode to high enough confidence on warm sector mayhem for that strong a worded outlook. Been a long time since most in the outlook area had severe weather, hope everyone has their warning sources up and running

-Weather radios, check

-notifications for certain accounts on Twitter, check

-notifications on weather mobile apps, check

-WEAs enabled, check

-email notifications for this thread, check lol