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Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

slenker said:
It’s basic twitter hive mind psychology at this point - good thing they aren’t drawing the outlooks, because with an environment with as high of a ceiling as tomorrow, I don’t care what the floor is, I want to be prepared for the worst case scenario. It’s literally a win-win scenario - if the worst case occurs you’re prepared to deal with it, and if it doesn’t it didn’t happen in the first place.
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Prepare for the worst and hope for the best is the motto to live by when it comes to emergency preparedness.
 
JPWX said:
Important note too: Any line of storms can leave boundaries as @Clancy says and speed of any big squall line will be critical. Before 2011, I had always assumed that early morning storm lines would limit the overall amount of afternoon/evening coverage. During April 27th, that wasn't the case and that was the biggest lesson/takeaway for me. Of course, this won't feature any early morning storms or big squall line that would limit afternoon/evening storm coverage. But I'm just throwing that out there for future reference.
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CAPE over 2,000 J/KG and SRH 0 TO 1 KM....300 to 400 M2S2 in Decemeber. That sounds really scary for this time of year.
 
I'm starting to wonder if there's gunna be two distinct rounds for the Alabama/Mississippi region tommorow...or if some of the junk convection may drown out some of the serious convection. The afternoon stuff has me intrigued in central Alabama tomorrow. I feel like tommorow is gunna be kindve wild, a lot of little tweaks that could drastically change things during the day.

With the trends towards a deeper low, the wind field is a lot stronger further out that with the weaker wind fields of the projected 1008mb low of yesterday...
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm starting to wonder if there's gunna be two distinct rounds for the Alabama/Mississippi region tommorow...or if some of the junk convection may drown out some of the serious convection. The afternoon stuff has me intrigued in central Alabama tomorrow. I feel like tommorow is gunna be kindve wild, a lot of little tweaks that could drastically change things during the day.
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Time will tell - the most reliable indicator will likely be looking at convective evolution tomorrow morning.
 
Clancy said:
This happened in Birmingham, due to weather delays associated with our current system (and likely several beers).
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At least he wasn't streaking
 
A lot of people repeatedly forget that Dixie alley can very easily produce tornadoes even with messy storm mode.

Let alone during the winter when the tropopause above the PBL is far colder than it is during the spring or summer, which means surface temps don’t need to be as high or surface laspe rates as steep to get a tornado outbreak.

A broad longitudinal warm sector provides plenty of room and time for supercells to establish themselves.

The wind vector in the jet streak is more perpendicular than parallel above the low level jet, which favors discrete development.

Watch for the strength of the surface low, if it’s on the stronger side <1005, then surface winds will be more backed allowing for stronger entrainment.

This has the potential to be a quite a substantial outbreak if this comes to pass.

On the other hand, this has just as much to be a minor event tornado wise. The failure mode will not be low instability, but instead if the height falls fail to produce a strong enough surface low.

A weaker surface low would not produce as strong a low level jet and the surface winds would be more parallel to said low level jet.

The messy storm mode would really become a detriment in this scenario as mass cold pooling would definitely cause outflow dominate cells.
 
Clancy said:
Not a fan of those SW AL supercells.
View attachment 32083
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The warm front doesn't make it too far north in Alabama during the day Saturday it looks like, looks like a potential good thing to limit severity a bit is that the warm sector seems to be a little more confined. Not going to bet that this verifies but will see.
 
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00Z HRRR honing in on what I reckon to be a fairly reasonable scenario. Some discrete development ahead of a rapidly-advancing MCS, consisting potentially of a cluster of different quasi-linear complexes converging together. Will be curious to see the rest of the 00Z suite, but this seems fair.
CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2024122800-HRRR-SE-prec-radar-12-33-100.gif
 
jiharris0220 said:
A lot of people repeatedly forget that Dixie alley can very easily produce tornadoes even with messy storm mode.

Let alone during the winter when the tropopause above the PBL is far colder than it is during the spring or summer, which means surface temps don’t need to be as high or surface laspe rates as steep to get a tornado outbreak.

A broad longitudinal warm sector provides plenty of room and time for supercells to establish themselves.

The wind vector in the jet streak is more perpendicular than parallel above the low level jet, which favors discrete development.

Watch for the strength of the surface low, if it’s on the stronger side <1005, then surface winds will be more backed allowing for stronger entrainment.

This has the potential to be a quite a substantial outbreak if this comes to pass.

On the other hand, this has just as much to be a minor event tornado wise. The failure mode will not be low instability, but instead if the height falls fail to produce a strong enough surface low.

A weaker surface low would not produce as strong a low level jet and the surface winds would be more parallel to said low level jet.

The messy storm mode would really become a detriment in this scenario as mass cold pooling would definitely cause outflow dominate cells.
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…. This. Well said
 
Clancy said:
Significant increase in areal coverage of UH swaths on 00Z HRRR. MS would have serious problems if a scenario like this were to verify.
View attachment 32088
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This is bringing a good bit of North MS into play that the SPC doesn't currently have highlighted in the ENH.
 
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