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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

As tonight winds down, all eyes set on Saturday. SREF parameters are increasing; not tremendous values but significantly more notable than earlier runs. Both NAM and HRRR show a potent-looking trough Saturday evening, resulting in strong shear over the South. Will need to keep an eye on the evolution of the trough on modelling, the potential for convective contamination of the OWS and the northward extent of instability, but the potential for a dangerous severe weather event is very much there.
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This morning, a number of synoptic features stand out, but some uncertainties abound regarding convective evolution. SREF values continue to increase, and expect this trend to continue. HRRR depicts aggressive convection, including severe storms over a large swath of MS/AL, with an intense QLCS following behind. HRRR suggests that the convection in front could wipe out instability across the area, potentially stunting the QLCS. NAM disagrees. For Georgia folks, especially Atlanta, the degree of threat we will see will all depend on the trusty old CAD, and it's always a toss up whether it erodes or not. Synoptically, most models show a strong, U-shaped trough advancing through the Southeast into Sunday morning, bringing with it extremely strong helicity. Despite aforementioned uncertainties, the possibility for a significant severe weather event is clear, and anyone from Louisiana to the Carolinas should be watching this system closely.
HRRRSE_con_sbcape_042.pngNAMNSTSE_con_sbcape_048.pngHRRRSE_prec_radar_042.pngNAMNSTSE_con_uphlysw_060.pngNAMUS_500_spd_048.pngRAPUS_500_spd_045.pngGFSUS_500_spd_048.png1735299216587.png1735299245358.png
 
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Clancy said:
This morning, a number of synoptic features stand out, but some uncertainties abound regarding convective evolution. SREF values continue to increase, and expect this trend to continue. HRRR depicts aggressive convection, including severe storms over a large swath of MS/AL, with an intense QLCS following behind. HRRR suggests that the convection in front could wipe out instability across the area, potentially stunting the QLCS. NAM disagrees. For Georgia folks, especially Atlanta, the degree of threat we will see will all depend on the trusty old CAD, and it's always a toss up whether it erodes or not. Synoptically, most models show a strong, U-shaped trough advancing through the Southeast into Sunday morning, bringing with it extremely strong helicity. Despite aforementioned uncertainties, the possibility for a significant severe weather event is clear, and anyone from Louisiana to the Carolinas should be watching this system closely.
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That's a fairly high supercell probability 70% bull's-eye over central Alabama with widespread 50%..

12z hrrr is rolling out now. And 12z wrf runs shortly.
 
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Growing more concerned not only about the parameters, but from the public's reaction. Just from what I've seen - at least in north Alabama - people seem to either not care or just flat out ignoring tomorrow's threat. I don't want to start a panic, but I'm starting to use stronger wording in my posts on FB. It's been a long time since we've had a tornado threat, and I'm worried about fatalities due to complacency.
 
MichelleH said:
Growing more concerned not only about the parameters, but from the public's reaction. Just from what I've seen - at least in north Alabama - people seem to either not care or just flat out ignoring tomorrow's threat. I don't want to start a panic, but I'm starting to use stronger wording in my posts on FB. It's been a long time since we've had a tornado threat, and I'm worried about fatalities due to complacency.
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I notice this happens fairly often with winter setups. I'm not sure why, I guess because people just don't think about tornadoes in December, which is unwise if you live in the South.
 
Disclaimer: 12Z isn't all the way in yet, but so far it's looking rather ominous from LA all the way into GA.
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Is it just a quirk of GR Level 3 on certain NEXRAD sites (such as KHDC this morning and, almost every time I use it, KDGX) or are an alarming number of NWS offices consistently forgetting to operate their radars in SAILS mode during severe weather events, so you only get a volume scan every 5-7 minutes instead of 2-3? The difference is an eternity in "tornado time."
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Is it just a quirk of GR Level 3 on certain NEXRAD sites (such as KHDC this morning and, almost every time I use it, KDGX) or are an alarming number of NWS offices consistently forgetting to operate their radars in SAILS mode during severe weather events, so you only get a volume scan every 5-7 minutes instead of 2-3? The difference is an eternity in "tornado time."
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It could be a GRX problem but I've noticed this is an issue at some radar sites more than others.
 
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