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Severe Weather Threat 1/5-1/6/2025

Recent HRRR runs have decreased the northward extent of instability (this was expected) and have continued to, unfortunately, depict a maximized threat in the vicinity of Rolling Fork, MS. Any storms that develop, especially discretely or within a QLCS, could pose a strong tornado threat. More than enough CAPE, including >100 3CAPE and very strong kinematic profiles, better than what some of the HRRR runs were showing yesterday. Sounding from AR/LA/MS triple-point. Looks like there will be a pretty hard choke point for convection around/east of the AL/MS border. Would watch for boundary-riders in northern MS.
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Those little cells from DeRidder up to Jonesboro definitely bear watching as they have some breathing room out ahead of the cold front and appear to be trying to take on that "kidney bean" shape of incipient supercells, with small velocity couplets as well. I think they need some time to beef up, though and they may still get undercut before that can happen.
 
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