Severe Weather Threat 1/5-1/6/2025

[JPWX]

Could be "cloud cover issues" plus limited "instability". I put instability and cloud cover in quotes because here in Monroe County, MS, we were under cloud cover most of the day on Dec 28th with one exception of the Sun coming out briefly. And still Monroe County got put under a Tornado Warning late that evening. Thankfully, nothing bad happened except for straight line wind damage that knocked a few trees down according to my EMA director. However, this clearly shows that both cloud cover/instability issues do not prevent severe storms/tornado risk from happening. It's also a valuable lesson to not put too much emphasis on cloud cover and instability issues limiting the threats.

 

[KevinH]

Could be "cloud cover issues" plus limited "instability". I put instability and cloud cover in quotes because here in Monroe County, MS, we were under cloud cover most of the day on Dec 28th with one exception of the Sun coming out briefly. And still Monroe County got put under a Tornado Warning late that evening. Thankfully, nothing bad happened except for straight line wind damage that knocked a few trees down according to my EMA director. However, this clearly shows that both cloud cover/instability issues do not prevent severe storms/tornado risk from happening. It's also a valuable lesson to not put too much emphasis on cloud cover and instability issues limiting the threats.

I mean, at THIS point, if people have not yet realized that Dixie Alley doesn’t follow “the rules” and does whatever the HELL she wants, and is the queen of “hold my beer” by now then…bless their hearts lol

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This system looks to have a more focused surface response (with accompanying stronger low-level SRH) and a more mature trough at mid-upper levels (speed max actually ejecting out into the warm sector during the day instead of still rounding the base of the trough by sunset as on 12/28). The one saving grace might be more limited thermodynamics, although as alluded to above sometimes "just enough" can get it done when everything else is favorable, especially in the Southeast.

 

[Clancy]

NAM just starting to come into range (grains of salt, obviously), and over central and northern MS the story couldn't be more of a "just enough" scenario with regard to CAPE. Also a very pristine-looking system in general.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The atmosphere still has room to bump that instability higher, I think you'll reach 1000j in Mississippi. A 1000j in a winter event is more than enough to get things going. This should be a rather substantial severe event imo.

 

[JPWX]

Current forecasted high temperature Sunday for Smithville, MS: 63
Current forecasted high temperature Monday for Smithville, MS: 35
28 degree temp difference. A nearly 30 degree temperature contrast definitely bolds for severe weather threat. December 28th outbreak you really didn't have this significant temperature difference. All this to say, I would expect a more potent/significant threat to arise based on this temperature difference. This is what I look for with the majority of winter severe threats.

 

[KevinH]

Current forecasted high temperature Sunday for Smithville, MS: 63
Current forecasted high temperature Monday for Smithville, MS: 35
28 degree temp difference. A nearly 30 degree temperature contrast definitely bolds for severe weather threat. December 28th outbreak you really didn't have this significant temperature difference. All this to say, I would expect a more potent/significant threat to arise based on this temperature difference. This is what I look for with the majority of winter severe threats.

Good grief man

 

[Austin Dawg]

Current forecasted high temperature Sunday for Smithville, MS: 63
Current forecasted high temperature Monday for Smithville, MS: 35
28 degree temp difference. A nearly 30 degree temperature contrast definitely bolds for severe weather threat. December 28th outbreak you really didn't have this significant temperature difference. All this to say, I would expect a more potent/significant threat to arise based on this temperature difference. This is what I look for with the majority of winter severe threats.

I remember days like this. Mom always said she hated those days because it usually led to severe weather.

 

[Kds86z]

I remember days like this. Mom always said she hated those days because it usually led to severe weather.

So true! It’s like when I would watch some tornado outbreak damage in the past photos on the news and you see it snowing day after..

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I expect a fairly sizeable enchanced by day 1. Your already seeing instability increases. Most of Mississippi and the delta area are hovering around 1000j if not at that with the latest nam run. Not sure if this will be tornado outbreak by any means, but definetly a substantial severe weather event.

I'm surprised at the lack of chatter in this thread about this event.

 

[MichelleH]

So true! It’s like when I would watch some tornado outbreak damage in the past photos on the news and you see it snowing day after..

The Huntsville November 15, 1989 tornado happened during rush hour in the afternoon. When they showed the damage and rescuers working that night on Nightline on ABC, it was snowing.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[slenker]

Looks like confluence bands or discrete development in the OWS are going to be the best chances for any tornadoes. There’s also definitely enough shear for embedded tornadoes in the QLCS too.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

15z rap sped thing sup and puts most of mississippi in peak heating. LARGE swath of 1000j+

 

[Kds86z]

15z rap sped thing sup and puts most of mississippi in peak heating. LARGE swath of 1000j+

Thank you for sharing

 

[MMWX]

Small complaint...

When posting a sounding, can we say what location that sounding is for?

I notice that a lot on here. Even if you don't know the exact place, a general location (ex. NW Mississippi) is useful.

I understand sounding have latitude/longitude coordinates posted, but I am admittedly too lazy to look up where the coordinates are most of the time.

 

[AJS]

Hoping this doesn’t get expanded into the Houston area. Looks to be further east than the system last week.

 

[Ledian]

I'm in the slight risk on the latest update. Not looking forward to the cold wave that follows afterward

 

[Clancy]

Plentiful SRH, abundant instability and robust 3CAPE values. The presence of what appears to be discrete activity over parts of MS isn't helping either. Smells like trouble for LA, MS and perhaps western AL. They already expanded the Slight on the D3, mentioning a possible upgrade, and wouldn't surprise me if they had an ENH tomorrow. Intense QLCS, not unlike last week's seems probable. Looks like the wedge will keep a lid on things for eastern AL and GA, but could foresee a coastal threat in the Panhandle.

As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly
destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and
perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western
Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited
instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong
shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with
height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail
should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of
storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading
supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to
appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and
central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern
Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in
the current outlook level at this time.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Found the monster hodograph (southeast AR):



Yes folks, that's over 820 m2/s2 0-3 KM SRH. CAPE profile is rather skinny and lapse rates are marginal, but there's fairly substantial 0-3km CAPE. Even a QLCS would be capable of producing strong tornadoes in that scenario.