Severe WX Severe weather thread March 5th-7th, 2022

[CheeselandSkies]

Is that 3,000 J/KG of CAPE?

CAPE in the lowest three kilometers. Vaues of 200-300 j/kg are significant. I should have paid more attention when the HRRR runs were showing that the morning of.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

CAPE in the lowest three kilometers.

OK, so was CAPE around 1,500 J/KG yesterday?

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

It's a good reminder of how much mesoscale factors matter, especially in the cool season (and I guess also a reminder of how much we still don't understand about them).

https://stormtrack.org/community/th...s-with-f-4-ef-4-and-f-5-e-f5-tornadoes.27344/

I am not a fan of Stormtrack but this is certainly interesting. The Tri-State 1925 tornado had meh temps and dews. However the Andover 1991 and Bridge Creek-Moore 1999 tornadoes had temps/dews of 75/68. I tend to believe that temps in the 75F to 84F range and dews in the 66F to 74F range are most common with violent tornadoes. However late Fall through very late winter/early spring meh temps and dews can produce violent tornadoes if all other ingredients favor them.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I've been on the sick list last night and today so I have missed everything that happened last night. Y I don't have Covid but I'm running a pretty high fever and fever for me is like giving me morphine just takes sense totally out of it so I'm totally altered even affecting my vision. Luckily I very rarely get a fever. You guys keep the finger on it for me today LOL.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060942
SPC AC 060942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Sun Mar 06 2022

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday: Southeast into the TN/OH Valleys and Mid
Atlantic...
Substantial upper trough amplification is expected over parts of the
central/eastern CONUS next Friday/Saturday, though deterministic and
ensemble guidance differs substantially regarding the timing,
location, and intensity of surface cyclone development in
association with this trough. CMC and deterministic/ensemble ECMWF
guidance generally have the most aggressive solutions among the
global models, showing potential for a rapidly deepening cyclone
moving from near the TX/LA Gulf Coast Friday morning into portions
of New England by Saturday. In comparison, GFS/GEFS guidance is
faster and less intense with the developing cyclone. The
slower/stronger solutions would favor substantial moisture return
ahead of a strong cold front and an organized severe-thunderstorm
threat from the Southeast into the TN/OH Valleys, and perhaps into
the Mid Atlantic. Severe probabilities will eventually be needed if
guidance continues to trend toward the slower/stronger solution.

..Dean.. 03/06/2022

 

[Taylor Campbell]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 061920
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
120 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0405 AM CST Sun Mar 06 2022/

Tuesday through Saturday:

The surface front will stall out south/east of the forecast area,
but the 850mb front will remain stalled over the forecast area.
Another shortwave will eject across the Southern Plains Tuesday,
eventually weakening as it lifts northeastward Wednesday morning.
Isentropic lift and 925-700mb frontogenesis will strengthen ahead
of this shortwave. Soundings indicate the column quickly
saturating across much of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon,
with very strong lift aloft, and models are usually too slow to
bring in precipitation in these situations. Therefore PoPs were
raised substantially above NBM for Tuesday afternoon with a
widespread soaking rain developing, with temperatures dropping
into the lower 50s where rain develops. Widespread rain is
expected across much of the area Tuesday night with a few rumbles
of thunder possible. A wave of low pressure or inverted trough may
form along the stalled front. Some models track this feature a
bit further north and try to pull in some higher dew points and
possible surface-based instability into our far southeast
counties late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with wind
profiles potentially supportive of rotating storms. Will need to
keep an eye on mesoscale trends as this time period gets closer.
Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 1 to 2 inch range
limiting the potential for flooding, but could see some minor
flooding in poor drainage areas and rises on some rivers.

Southwest flow aloft with embedded shortwaves continues Wednesday
and Thursday, with a front remaining stalled just southeast of the
area. A southwest to northeast oriented moisture gradient will
remain in place, with the exact placement of this gradient
determining rain chances. A stronger mid/upper-level trough
arrives for the end of the week. Models disagree regarding the
speed of this system; a quicker solution would limit the potential
for moisture return while a slower solution would allow higher
rain chances and possibly some stronger storms for Friday. A
strong cold front then moves through by Friday night. At this time
expect any moisture to exit before the cold air arrives. A freeze
will be possible mainly along/north of I-20 Friday night, with a
widespread freeze Saturday night, with many areas dropping into
the 20s. While the official growing season does not start until
March 15, this could impact some early season crops given recent
warmth.

32/Davis

 

[Taylor Campbell]

About to get real ugly across AR.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Fine time for Radarscope to decide to stop working.

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[buckeye05]

Fine time for Radarscope to decide to stop working.

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Yup noticed this as well. Such bad timing.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Fine time for Radarscope to decide to stop working.

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Wow! I just installed it on my PC thinking my phone was the problem lol. I got radar omega on the phone and it is working.

 

[TH2002]

GetNexrad is still functional.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Pivotal also having issues, but from what I can tell looking at the HRRR products on CoD the 20Z run wants to put a couple of gnarly sups through northern AR/southeastern MO this evening. Given how well it did with the main storms of 12/10 and yesterday at this relatively short range, that's ominous.

*Managed to get it to load on Pivotal. Had to click to another forecast hour on the default GFS before it would let me open the drop-down menu to go to another model.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Pivotal also having issues, but from what I can tell looking at the HRRR products on CoD the 20Z run wants to put a couple of gnarly sups through northern AR this evening. Given how well it did with the main storms of 12/10 and yesterday at this relatively short range, that's ominous.

75/67 in Jonesboro to name a few places in Northern Arkansas.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I wasn't even really looking beyond this weekend, as I thought a big push of cold air east of the Rockies behind the current system was going to quash severe potential for a while.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Radarscope is working again for me. Earlier warned cell is passing near Booneville, AR and still looks dangerous.

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[CheeselandSkies]

Meanwhile, confirmed tornado west of Jonesboro.

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[TornadoFan]

Storm south of Plainview, AR starting to rotate and hook pretty good.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Storm south of Plainview, AR starting to rotate and hook pretty good.

The earlier tornado warned storm is now near Blue Mountain and looks ready to drop.

 

[TornadoFan]

Seems like everything out west of Little Rock is starting to get that shape.

 

[TornadoFan]

SUre looks like a BWER on that storm near Blue Mountain.