Severe WX Severe weather thread March 5th-7th, 2022

[warneagle]

At least six confirmed dead.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah this has to be at least EF3

 

[Equus]

Has the definite look of a potentially violent tornado but it's probably gonna come down to contextual indicators; vehicle damage, low lying shrubbery shredded, that sort of thing. Ground surveyors will be able to tell tomorrow hopefully. Anchored or not I've stopped expecting highest end structural damage (old scale F5) to go above 165 in the current era

 

[CheeselandSkies]

One fatality in Chariton, IA as well.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Multiple fatalities and at least one EF3+; vastly overperforming day to say the least. Hard to wrap my head around this one.

Considered chasing but in addition to the borderline low-level thermos, I thought there were some kinematic issues with the setup (mainly unidirectional winds above 850mb, per HRRR forecast soundings Friday night) that would prevent a more than transient supercellular mode. Whoops.

 

[buckeye05]

Wow, I clearly missed a lot today. Overperformer in the worst kind of way unfortunately. How though? It didn't seem like an extremely potent setup, but it sure played out like one.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Wow, I clearly missed a lot today. Overperformer in the worst kind of way unfortunately. How though? It didn't seem like an extremely potent setup, but it sure played out like one.

Mediocre temps and dews. Like 62/57. I am surprised it got that bad.

 

[buckeye05]

Mediocre temps and dews. Like 62/57. I am surprised it got that bad.

See stuff like this scares me the worst. It's why I can't relax even on days with "meh" setups.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

See stuff like this scares me the worst. It's why I can't relax even on days with "meh" setups.

Isn't like 76/67 tend to always be good even in April and May? I know the Crittenden, KY tornado from 2012 came out of like 58/55.

 

[cincywx]

Isn't like 76/67 tend to always be good even in April and May? I know the Crittenden, KY tornado from 2012 came out of like 58/55.

mindblowing fact right here. this was (and i guess technically still is, as it was rated 5mph above the dayton tornado) the strongest tornado in ILN’s cwa in a long time and it came from sub-60 temp/dew.

 

[OHWX97]

In regard to yesterday’s setup:

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Meanwhile, we have an enhanced risk for parts of AR/MO for today/tonight with a hatched area on the tornado outlook....which yesterday never featured.

 

[kcyalater]

going ahead and getting this one going

 

[warneagle]

See stuff like this scares me the worst. It's why I can't relax even on days with "meh" setups.

It's a good reminder of how much mesoscale factors matter, especially in the cool season (and I guess also a reminder of how much we still don't understand about them).

 

[Tennie]

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (as of 1630Z):

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sun Mar 06 2022

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight in
a corridor from the ArkLaTex and Ozarks region into the Ohio Valley
and Tennessee Valley. This includes the risk for a few tornadoes,
some of which may be strong, and damaging winds, especially this
evening/overnight across parts of northern Arkansas and southern
Missouri.

...ArkLaTex into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Evident on morning water vapor imagery, a deepening shortwave trough
and 90-100 kt 500 mb jet are forecast to eject northeastward out of
the Four Corners across the southern Plains today, reaching the
Ozarks and Ohio Valley later tonight. At the surface, a cold front
draped over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will move to the east,
as a wave cyclone travels along the front overnight. Low-level warm
advection is expected through much of the day ahead of the trough
across AR and LA. The initially subtle forcing for ascent will
intensify through the afternoon and evening, resulting in scattered
showers and eventual thunderstorm development as weak inhibition is
removed. While wind profiles are not forecast to be overly strong at
first, low-level hodograph curvature and gradually improving
buoyancy from the advection of 60+ F surface dewpoints may support a
few severe storms across the ArkLaTex as early as this afternoon.

The greater severe threat will likely evolve late this afternoon and
evening into the overnight hours as the approaching trough and
low-level jet intensify. Any remaining inhibition should quickly be
overcome, supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms by 00-02z.
50-60 knots of effective shear and large low-level hodographs will
support the potential for a few supercells or organized clusters
ahead of more linear development closer to the cold front. This
would support the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes,
some of which may be strong across portions of northern AR and
southern MO. Storms should eventually congeal into a larger
cluster/QLCS as they track northeastward toward the Ohio valley.

...Ohio Valley...
As the primary shortwave and jet approach from the southwest, large
scale ascent should support the development of a thunderstorms along
the cold front overnight. Buoyancy will become increasingly scarce
with northeastward extent, but this may be somewhat offset by strong
dynamic lift and low-level warm advection. The strong wind profiles
will support an organized QLCS as it moves northeast near the
surface cyclone. A couple tornadoes and some damaging wind gusts
will be possible, though uncertainty is considerable on the north
and eastward extent of severe probabilities overnight.

...New England...
A fast moving shortwave trough moving out of southern Canada may
support a few strong/severe thunderstorms along a cold front this
afternoon crossing portions of upstate new York and New England.
Despite meager buoyancy (<500 J/kg of MLCAPE), 80-100 kt of 500 mb
flow may support a few damaging wind gusts with any weak convection
able to become established.

..Hart/Lyons.. 03/06/2022

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Can a moderator please change date to include March 5th and throw in the discussion from yesterday’s severe threat into this thread. Also, please pin to the top of the forum. Thank you.

 

[MichelleH]

Can a moderator please change date to include March 5th and throw in the discussion from yesterday’s severe threat into this thread. Also, please pin to the top of the forum. Thank you.

@WesL @Lori

 

[TH2002]

Incredible close call with the Winterset tornado.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

In regard to yesterday’s setup:

Is that 3,000 J/KG of CAPE?