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I think we're eventually going to end up with a risk flagged for Monday as well. GFS, Euro, and ensembles have slowed down with the system over the past 24-36 hours, and it's now coming through MS/AL/TN during that late morning to mid evening timeframe. GFS/Euro has anywhere from 700-800 to 1500-2000 CAPE in the warm sector, and mid-levels are dry this time with adequately cold 500mb temps and 300mb temps near -40C. There's not an overly strong surface low, but there are hints that the pressure trough along the front could either have pressure falls that "act" like there's a secondary surface low over TN/KY, or there may actually be a secondary low develop, given the placement of the trough in relation to the frontal boundary. The past few events, as is often the case, low-level winds have verified less veered than what models show up until the last moment, but even if that's not the case, we have a 50-55 kt 850mb jet and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 being modeled. I don't think it's a major event, but I see an organized lower-end day coming out of this with a SLGT Risk and tornado watches. Discrete/cell clusters may even be the main convective mode unless there is storm interaction closer to the front.
Norwalk appears to be in the direct path of this wedge tornado
This warning has a PDS attached to it. May be recycling at the moment
