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Severe Weather Thread - 7/18 - 7/21/2026

The storms are more in line with the NAMNST forecast than the HRRR's, which is a very bullish sign. One of these blips could become the dominant supercell that drops an intense tornado. The SPC doesn't seem to be very confident in which one that will be based on the location of both the Mesoscale Discussion circles. My money is on one of the SW storms
 
I think the cells in Iowa are the drifters from MN. Doubt those will be the main players but they look quite strange on reflectivity.
 
eep said:
I think the cells in Iowa are the drifters from MN. Doubt those will be the main players but they look quite strange on reflectivity.
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NAM NST thinks they'll be the main players, HRRR thinks they fall apart before new cells form to the NE at 00Z. Very different solutions from both models. NAM NST looks like the more intense scenario based purely on UD helicity swaths.

1784577538163.png1784577552283.png
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
NAM NST thinks they'll be the main players, HRRR thinks they fall apart before new cells form to the NE at 00Z. Very different solutions from both models. NAM NST looks like the more intense scenario based purely on UD helicity swaths.

View attachment 54219View attachment 54220
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Interesting, I still think the main show will be in Wisconsin but yeah, these guys look healthy enough to be able to do stuff before that.
 
Aw shoot, and we were recovering from a flood too. I am really hoping one of those cells doesn't slab me with a big tornado in the next couple of hours (though if they move more rightward than southward, which would probably increase their tornado threat, we'd thread the needle...)

The good news is the storms are moving like 50 mph, and the ground is dry, so hopefully we don't get another 7 inches of rain that floods my basement again.
 
They're a bit displaced from the STP bullseye, wonder if they're moving towards it though. Also very weird supercells TBH.
 
To summarize the current situation. Isolated supercell with 70k ft cloud top. An eroded cap. 60 kts eff sheer. 238 m2/s2 Eff SRH. An EHI of 9. And 6000 CAPE. Very very volatile situation unfolding here. Only thing that could (and hopefully does) hold it back is very meager low level sheer and 0-1km SRH.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
To summarize the current situation. Isolated supercell with 70k ft cloud top. An eroded cap. 60 kts eff sheer. 238 m2/s2 Eff SRH. An EHI of 9. And 6000 CAPE. Very very volatile situation unfolding here. Only thing that could (and hopefully does) hold it back is very meager low level sheer and 0-1km SRH.
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TBF they're extremely bizarre and windbaggy right now so they will have to change quite a bit before they'll be able to do anything.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
To summarize the current situation. Isolated supercell with 70k ft cloud top. An eroded cap. 60 kts eff sheer. 238 m2/s2 Eff SRH. An EHI of 9. And 6000 CAPE. Very very volatile situation unfolding here. Only thing that could (and hopefully does) hold it back is very meager low level sheer and 0-1km SRH.
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They are increasingly beginning to cluster. Let's see but don't get too ahead of yourself here.
 
The storm is moving at 60 mph, and I think I heard that tornadoes tend to form best at like 20-30 MPH, so as long as the windbag doesn't knock my neighbor's tree on my roof (or if it slips just a bit further east) we should make it through this one OK.

1784579585791.png
 
FYI, the MCS looking thing has feeder bands coming into it according to Copic, so it could actually change towards a supercellular mode again.
 
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