Severe Weather Thread - 7/18 - 7/21/2026

[CheeselandSkies]

0Z HRRR is a bit nondescript for Monday. Develops a similar volatile environment over northeast IA as other models, but fires little convection within it through 0Z Tuesday in the wake of the MCS that moves through southern Wisconsin.

 

[WaryWarren]

Let's reel this one in. We deserve it.

 

[joshoctober16]

all them supercells have all became 2 supercells now.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Yep.

0Z HRRR is a bit nondescript for Monday. Develops a similar volatile environment over northeast IA as other models, but fires little convection within it through 0Z Tuesday in the wake of the MCS that moves through southern Wisconsin.

Still interesting that it still manages to fire a 30 DBZ storm in there. But low level shear isn't exactly strong. Seems to me more like a day with conditional long lived supercells, with a low end tornado threat. But any supercell that could get going would be quite the all sorts of hazards. Can see why SPC went conservative but surely the parameter space warrants a mention at minimum. It's only the first run though so I'm nto gonna shut the door on the ceiling. This will be a complex day to sort out.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yep.

Still interesting that it still manages to fire a 30 DBZ storm in there. But low level shear isn't exactly strong. Seems to me more like a day with conditional long lived supercells, with a low end tornado threat. But any supercell that could get going would be quite the all sorts of hazards. Can see why SPC went conservative but surely the parameter space warrants a mention at minimum. It's only the first run though so I'm nto gonna shut the door on the ceiling. This will be a complex day to sort out.

Kind of interesting to see them going with a wind-producing MCS as the primary threat when the 3K NAM, of all models, portrays a more discrete mode.

 

[akt1985]

There was enough rain from the storms in Pennsylvania this afternoon that much of the state is no longer under an Air Quality Alert.

 

[Kds86z]

There was enough rain from the storms in Pennsylvania this afternoon that much of the state is no longer under an Air Quality Alert.

Indeed! It’s currently 50, last night at this time was 270-280

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Likely to see a wind driven MCS now, as CAMs get in good range. 70-90 mph winds perhaps but not expecting a extremely organized bow echo of sorts. There will be a low end tornado threat though along with such.