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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

A pretty ominous mesoscale discussion from WPC in regards to the ongoing flash flooding in the Gulf Coast states.
Summary...Life-threatening and locally catastrophic flash flooding
continues along the central Gulf Coast northeast of New Orleans
through southern Alabama with additional heavy rain expanding into
eastern Georgia rest of the afternoon. Convergent rain bands with
3 to 4"/hr rainfall rates are likely to persist with additional 5
to 10"+ forecast into the evening. Widespread flash flooding, with
locally catastrophic impacts likely where this extreme band
persists occurs.

Discussion...As of 1830Z, an extreme rainband over southern MS
extending northeast just north of Mobile, AL with more scattered
heavy rain over the rest of southern AL. Hourly rainfall of 3 to
4" are estimated from KMOB and KHDC as the band moves along its
axis of orientation. Redevelopment has been occurring near New
Orleans, though that focus has shifted east of that vulnerable
metro area.

Extreme moisture of 2.6" PW is over southern MS with a gradient to
2.2" by the southern AL/GA border. This coastal area is under the
mid-level wave that remained east of Arthur and continues to drift
northeast. MCVs from other activity are farther nor over MS and
are helping to maintain focus for this band near the coast. 40kt
SSWly low level flow will maintain this extreme moisture advection
and an instability gradient of 3000 J/kg along the AL/FL Panhandle
coast to 1500 J/kg over south-central MS will help maintain this
extreme repeating band as it slowly shifts northeast.

Considerable flash flooding can be considered anywhere under this
heavy band with localized catastrophic where it persists longest
(with rainfall exceeding 10") over the most sensitive metro areas.
Areas toward the AL/GA border will see general flash flooding at
first, but will see prolonged intense rainfall later this evening
which will be addressed in followup discussions. Continued flash
flooding to the north of these areas associated with the MCVs will
be addressed separately.
 
Several suspicious couplets in Central Georgia. Things have upscaled a bit linear for the past few hours, but seems like kinematics may be increasing.
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