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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

I just want everyone to know it very much can still go either way. It really all depends on how much the surface can warm in time when dryline convection initiates.
The warm front being further south simply puts the maximum tornado potential further south, but yea, the Palm Sunday high ceiling potential that was evident Monday night and yesterday morning is completely gone now though.
The floor for this event is still a respectable amount of sig tors.
Just to clear any confusion about any “bust” talk, we are simply talking about the ceiling of this event.
 
I don't think any forcing will be able to overcome the ridiculous cap that's in place until the cold front starts to move through and everything pops off all at once. There will likely be an extremely intense window from about 7-9pm before it lines out. Storms could also be shredded by the cap if they move too fast or slow. Gonna be really important to keep an eye on surface heating, and if any cells form ahead of the line they could be extremely significant because that's where the historic parameters are. As of now, no storms look like they're going to be able to take advantage of that.
 
I am really not that impressed by the set up. You rarely recover from an MCS of that size overturning the warm sector in the mid morning hours. However, it is mid June with a strong LLJ so it could advect in a new warm sector but at this point, I am not expecting anything significant (from a supercell tornado standpoint) but we’ll see.
 
Just a reminder about post etiquette. This is not a warning to anyone and I am not talking about anyone specific regarding this post. It is just a gentle reminder.

4. "It is a Bust" policy (updated 24MAR21)
Bust posts during severe weather events will not be tolerated. Just because it is sunny and clear at your house, doesn't mean other members aren't under the gun. Be respectful before you go into an active severe weather thread and declare a bust. This is the type of discussion we expect in post-storm analysis. Furthermore, disrespectful bust posts that specifically call out someone who made a prediction that didn't pan out are highly discouraged. Science is hard, things change and Mother Nature doesn't like us knowing her intentions.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
We have hours for airmass recovery. But yeah, this is not your average sig svr weather outbreak type morning sounding.
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Yes I agree that we have hours for airmass recovery. I wonder what the sounding comparison of April 27 2011 in Alabama to todays morning sounding. Remember that morning had multiple tornadoes associated with it. Much stronger than what is going through Illinois right now and still produced one heck of a tornado outbreak that afternoon. I am not comparing the two but would be interested in seeing the data. I wish I had time to go do it.
 
Muwx said:
I am really not that impressed by the set up. You rarely recover from an MCS of that size overturning the warm sector in the mid morning hours. However, it is mid June with a strong LLJ so it could advect in a new warm sector but at this point, I am not expecting anything significant (from a supercell tornado standpoint) but we’ll see.
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Im not saying this event will be that event, just using this day to make a point... 4/27/11 had an MCS blast through the risk zone on roughly the same time frame this one will. The days with extreme dynamics at play change things so quickly.
 
JayF said:
Yes I agree that we have hours for airmass recovery. I wonder what the sounding comparison of April 27 2011 in Alabama to todays morning sounding. Remember that morning had multiple tornadoes associated with it. Much stronger than what is going through Illinois right now and still produced one heck of a tornado outbreak that afternoon. I am not comparing the two but would be interested in seeing the data. I wish I had time to go do it.
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Ha you beat me to it. There's a precedent for more than enough recovery with dynamics like the ones we have today.
 
JayF said:
Yes I agree that we have hours for airmass recovery. I wonder what the sounding comparison of April 27 2011 in Alabama to todays morning sounding. Remember that morning had multiple tornadoes associated with it. Much stronger than what is going through Illinois right now and still produced one heck of a tornado outbreak that afternoon. I am not comparing the two but would be interested in seeing the data. I wish I had time to go do it.
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4/27/11 had a explanation to that i remember seeing somewhere. This MCS appears to be almost weakening imo as we speak.
 
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