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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

I already went all in on the high-end scenario, but I need to see that region of 2000+ CAPE expand outwards before I feel more confident about my bet verifying. HRRR is depicting a razor thin region of instability and that really will be threading the needle with the speed these storms will be moving. The lack of a negative tilt makes me feel like moisture advection is less guaranteed, but the depth of the low pressure system should pretty easily make up for it. It could honestly be a situation where lower CAPE actually prevents over convection and storms stay more isolated as a result. The kinematic energy should do all the work anywhere thermodynamic energy is present. That's one scenario I can eaaily visualize playing out at least.

The low pressure system should be able to suck in large enough pockets of warm moist air to create explosive and rapidly maturing supercells.
 
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Ugh! If I can get off work two days and get my oncall covered I’d like to make the trip because views have the potential to be incredible with the terrain. I would however much need to car pool with the 10 hr drive just to get to chase destination.
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
Moderate 15cig2
Click to expand...

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. INTENSE TORNADOES, SWATHS OF
DAMAGING GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND HAIL TO 2.5 INCH DIAMETER ARE EXPECTED.

..MIDWEST
THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
ND TO THE MID-MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHWEST IA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL, WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTEND FROM EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN KS. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE DAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN IL/IN/OH AND UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED.
AIDED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT, MLCAPE WILL
APPROACH 2500-3500 J/KG. THE LATITUDE OF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
BE A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS MORNING
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN A STRONG WARM
ADVECTION REGIME MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL/IN. IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPACTS ON WHERE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AS STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, RATHER THAN ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIALLY FAST-MOVING/LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND REMAINING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR.
 
Kds86z said:
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...

..SUMMARY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. INTENSE TORNADOES, SWATHS OF
DAMAGING GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND HAIL TO 2.5 INCH DIAMETER ARE EXPECTED.

..MIDWEST
THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
ND TO THE MID-MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHWEST IA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL, WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTEND FROM EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN KS. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE DAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN IL/IN/OH AND UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED.
AIDED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT, MLCAPE WILL
APPROACH 2500-3500 J/KG. THE LATITUDE OF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
BE A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS MORNING
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN A STRONG WARM
ADVECTION REGIME MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL/IN. IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPACTS ON WHERE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AS STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, RATHER THAN ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIALLY FAST-MOVING/LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND REMAINING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR.
Click to expand...
Not shocking to see the CIG2 15% TOR risk pop out. Will be interesting to see how this outlook evolves tomorrow afternoon and where they move it around, or if they talk about issuing a high risk.
 
I'll be more explicit. This I a very dangerous day setting up l. Consistent model agreement, string of pearls in 400-700 SRH. The issue with this setup is that these cells develop in lesser shear meaning they gradually grow and mature into the warm sector which means they're interesting with the shear at hand. Meteorological standards in June, this type of setup had my eye from the start and it's really taken a turn. We're talking EF4+ tornadoes with this one imo.
 
it’s kind of interesting how every year for some reason seems to have a specific region that gets hit over and over. This particular year has been brutal for Northern Illinois and Indiana, along with nearby Great Lakes states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan).
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Ugh! If I can get off work two days and get my oncall covered I’d like to make the trip because views have the potential to be incredible with the terrain. I would however much need to car pool with the 10 hr drive just to get to chase destination.
Click to expand...
This setup looks amazing and if I didn't already have so much going on this week, I could have easily been tempted to go chase.
 
Long time lurker here. At face value tomorrow looks like a huge deal, but I can't help but wonder if the storm motion will throw a wrench into things. Typically convention along a southeast moving cold front will go linear relatively quick regardless of kinematics, especially in the summer. That said you rarely if ever see a sub 990mb low at this time of year, and the LLJ is going to be absolutely ripping, so my past experiences may not be applicable to this setup. I'll have a look at other historic June outbreaks later and see if there are similarities.
 
StormChaser99 said:
Long time lurker here. At face value tomorrow looks like a huge deal, but I can't help but wonder if the storm motion will throw a wrench into things. Typically convention along a southeast moving cold front will go linear relatively quick regardless of kinematics, especially in the summer. That said you rarely if ever see a sub 990mb low at this time of year, and the LLJ is going to be absolutely ripping, so my past experiences may not be applicable to this setup. I'll have a look at other historic June outbreaks later and see if there are similarities.
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Usually this would the case, unfortunately not with this set up. Here’s why.
jiharris0220 said:
Im seeing discussion on twitter (I know I know) about that this setup is garbage regarding storm mode because of the parallel orientation of the jet streak relative to the dryline; because of that, convection specifically along the dryline will grow upscale quickly.
While this would be true 99% of the time, this isn’t the case with this event.
Below, is a childishly drawn illustration of the context.
To the left, is the usual orientation of a jet streak over the common southwest to northeast orientated dry line. In this case, yes, convection would grow upscale quickly because this orientation causes cold pooling from storms to combine in swift succession.
However, on the right, the set up on Wednesday, the dryline is orientated in the usual way, very unfavorable for discrete convection, but the jet streak orientation coming form northwest to southeast makes this a very special case.
Because of the position of this jet streak, storms will be moving towards the southeast away from this dryline rather than straight east or northeast.
This substantial reduces cold pooling combination and allows for storms to actually stay discrete longer.
It’s no coincidence that the squall line loving 3km NAM actually shows a relatively discrete storm mode and the hyper large updraft loving RRFS also shows discrete dryline convection as well.
Again, very curious to see what the hrrr depicts as it gets into range.
1781615603445.png
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