N0mz
Member
It’s been pretty incredible this year, especially at sniffing stuff out at longer lead times. I believe it was the best of all models tested by the hazardous weather testbed this year.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
jiharris0220
Member
Waiting for other cams to come in, but so far, the HRRR, 3km NAM, and FV3 pretty much show the exact same setup and storm mode.
Hardly any disagreement at two days out nonetheless.
Hardly any disagreement at two days out nonetheless.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
oh
Ozonelayer
Member
I would expect a D2 MOD at somepoint tomorrow. Everything looks insane so far.
I wouldnt even rule out prefrontal ahead of the dryline cells from the anount of forcing in play here. Just simply ridiculous for June.
I wouldnt even rule out prefrontal ahead of the dryline cells from the anount of forcing in play here. Just simply ridiculous for June.
jiharris0220
Member
Most cams are in. All of them are in agreement with the set up down to the mesoscale. Honestly don’t think this will uptrend or downtrend in the next two days at all. This looks like an extremely rare model lock in.
To put into perspective how much of an anomaly this is. It’s completely normal for cams to pretty much have completely different set ups in storm mode while the event is already occurring.
To put into perspective how much of an anomaly this is. It’s completely normal for cams to pretty much have completely different set ups in storm mode while the event is already occurring.
That is so nuts. I wonder what the reason for the confidence is. Seems like it's just such a deep and strong low pressure system that it's like a huge train on the tracks that won't be stopped or moved no matter how much else changes.
DanLarsen34
Member
If anything close to the modeled environment comes to fruition on Wednesday, we’re talking about one of the highest ceiling events of the past 15 years for anywhere in the country, let alone where this risk is located.
This event straight up looks like an upper echelon environment you’d see in Dixie Alley in March or April. On paper, this event is checking amost every warning box you’d see in advance of a high-end outbreak. In fact, I don’t think it’s insane to say that the ceiling of this event could rival or exceed any event we’ve had since 2011. The area involved is similar to 11/17/2013, but we’ve got thermodynamics in-play here that well exceed that event which was an historic one for the region.
The combination of the storm motions and parameters suggest that several long-track, intense tornadoes are likely. We’re talking about the potential for VERY long-tracked tornadoes with storm motions of 65-75+ MPH. Several violent tornadoes are in-play as well. Any time you’ve got this level of shear and this degree of confidence in a semi-discrete mode with this level of STP, you’re talking about an incredibly dangerous situation. You almost never see STP values like this except in the upper echelon Dixie outbreaks.
This could be a generational event for the region.
This event straight up looks like an upper echelon environment you’d see in Dixie Alley in March or April. On paper, this event is checking amost every warning box you’d see in advance of a high-end outbreak. In fact, I don’t think it’s insane to say that the ceiling of this event could rival or exceed any event we’ve had since 2011. The area involved is similar to 11/17/2013, but we’ve got thermodynamics in-play here that well exceed that event which was an historic one for the region.
The combination of the storm motions and parameters suggest that several long-track, intense tornadoes are likely. We’re talking about the potential for VERY long-tracked tornadoes with storm motions of 65-75+ MPH. Several violent tornadoes are in-play as well. Any time you’ve got this level of shear and this degree of confidence in a semi-discrete mode with this level of STP, you’re talking about an incredibly dangerous situation. You almost never see STP values like this except in the upper echelon Dixie outbreaks.
This could be a generational event for the region.
slenker
Member
I would agree that this is the highest ceiling event we’ve seen since 2011 if 5/20/19 or 3/15/25 didn’t exist, with emphasis on the latter. This event really came out of nowhere IMO, maybe that’s a bit of bias because we had a pretty significant outbreak last week and that took up a lot of attention.
Taken verbatim on these models, a truly high end event is possible, one we haven’t seen in quite some time.
I also think the CAMs may not be fully resolving the potential for prefrontal confluence bands…
Taken verbatim on these models, a truly high end event is possible, one we haven’t seen in quite some time.
I also think the CAMs may not be fully resolving the potential for prefrontal confluence bands…
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Seasons of weather
Member
Little under 48 hours out looks like a thread the needle event for areas of DuPage and Cook near the city (areas directly west and southwest of Chicago). Will be incredibly fast storm motion
DanLarsen34
Member
Like, I cannot stress enough how anomalous this environment would be. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a potential outbreak environment in the Midwest with STP values this high. Hell, we almost never see it this high in higher-end plain events. Even in Dixie Alley, you only see maybe 3-4 events a decade with this kind of STP in-play.
Add in that we’re talking about storm motions that you only ever see in cold season events or exceptional outbreak days like 5/10/2010 or 4/27/2011 and you’ve got an outlier in every sense of the word.
Add in that we’re talking about storm motions that you only ever see in cold season events or exceptional outbreak days like 5/10/2010 or 4/27/2011 and you’ve got an outlier in every sense of the word.
slenker
Member
What’s even weirder is that it’s happening in June on a trough oriented such that storms will be moving from the WNW to the ESE, which is highly anomalous in every sense of the word. Regardless of the outcome of this event it’s an absolute goldmine of unique meteorological factors coming together.
DanLarsen34
Member
If the models remain this confident in storm mode and in the overall parameters, then a Day 2 high risk is not out of the question. There are reasons to hold on it in the coming update, but given the danger this event poses, I think one should be seriously considered.
Regardless, every single meteorologist needs to be properly conveying what could occur. I am very nervous, given the areas in-play here, that people may not be properly prepared for what could transpire. This could be an exceptionally dangerous and life-threatening event
slenker
Member
D2 HIGH seems a little crazy to me, simply because of this event’s uniqueness. I can’t think of a single good analog for this. I feel like a D2 HIGH should only be reserved for events that contain analogs of previous high-end outbreaks occurring from them in addition to having extreme parameters being modeled consistently, which is what every single D2 HIGH has been thus far. Hell, 4/27/11 wasn’t even a D2 HIGH, and that was a slam dunk monster outbreak from D3 onwards to D1.
KCweatherboy
Member
At the bare minimum and ignoring CAMs completely, just the synoptic setup alone would probably verify a wind driven MOD risk if all else fails