Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[KakashiHatake2000]

Doesn’t the tropical cyclone push more moisture up from the gulf as it moves inland

 

[N0mz]

i'm gonna draw some squiggles on a paper now

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I could be clutching at straws here but the RAP is maybe trying to simulate prefrontal-eque convection here in NE IL? Interesting scenario if so that would still favor a dangerous event.

 

[US_Highway15]

i'm gonna draw some squiggles on a paper now

Not gonna lie, that looks straight out of MS Paint.

 

[Kds86z]

Not gonna lie, that looks straight out of MS Paint.

 

[jiharris0220]

i'm gonna draw some squiggles on a paper now

Not sure why he has a cold front in the northern portion, I see what he was going for, but the dry line only terminates at the triple point, evidence that temps get warmer or show no change behind the front in question.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The smallest 75% contour ever on StormNet with the latest run. Lasted time it got this high was 5/16/25. Take with that whatever you will. No doubt, Wednesday is a big day showing up.

 

[N0mz]

The smallest 75% contour ever on StormNet with the latest run. Lasted time it got this high was 5/16/25. Take with that whatever you will. No doubt, Wednesday is a big day showing up.

Also, I'm rather sure 5/16 only hit 75% with a pretty short lead time (since it uptrended quite a bit the day before), unlike this setup. Another sign of how potent this event could be.

 

[N0mz]

00z HRRR is running. Buckle up.

 

[Tennie]

00z HRRR is running.

Someone should go catch it to make sure it doesn’t engage in mischief!

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Someone should go catch it to make sure it doesn’t engage in mischief!

Hello?

Hi, is your 00z HRRR running?

Yes?

Better go catch it!

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I cast fkn run just run insane output easy d2 mdt

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Pardon my Latin but holy mackerel, the 00z HRRR environment is very high end for June standards. Supercells FIRE and interact wit those kinematics. Uh oh.

 

[N0mz]

Yeah, no robust OWS convection, but the dryline fires hard and discrete. Would be an outbreak.

 

[jiharris0220]

It’s exceptionally rare for multiple cams to agree on a storm mode, so the fact that almost all of them show a semi discrete mode along the dryline and more importantly at the triple point seals the deal for me. Of course, still 2 days out.
Moving along, this kinematic environment is nothing short of historic for this area, let alone in June.
Look at the storm motion vectors, 80mph for right movers is mental; and for storms moving along with the steering flow, 105mph….

 

[N0mz]

It’s exceptionally rare for multiple cams to agree on a storm mode, so the fact that almost all of them show a semi discrete mode along the dryline and more importantly at the triple point seals the deal for me. Of course, still 2 days out.
Moving along, this kinematic environment is nothing short of historic for this area, let alone in June,
View attachment 53444

Miller B noreaster with June thermos, what could go wrong?