Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[N0mz]

@jiharris0220 with the prophetic post 16 days ago lmao, the storm system is just two days later than originally forecast. In regards to model agreement, the GFS has seen a massive system developing in this time frame for over 2 weeks now. The signal has been remarkably consistent actually, with very little variation. No one took it as seriously as they would've in other years because the models have been so unreliable this year.


Edit:
The presentation of how this low pressure system came together is actually very similar to how it was modeled 2 weeks ago (just maybe a little further east). Pretty dang fascinating.

View attachment 53435

Yeah, I've been loosely tracking it since the start of June or so, and it felt like as close as a mid-range slam dunk as you could get that we would get some really significant trough around this time. I, too, brushed it off because models have been so terrible this year, and it's June anyway.

 

[Brice W]

Went ahead and deleted my original comment about this being such a big threat since May 20, 2019. That’s my bad, definitely a bit too hyperbolic. However I was more referring to how the troughing is very similar to that day.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

the new rap run is kinda insane like legit wow its wild

 

[KevinH]

Let's not ignore the tornado risk for Gulf Coast as well as further inland late this week especially if this tropical system develops. Of course, track will ultimately dictate the tornadic threat and other risks.

Right... one of the oddest things I have seen.... IN JUNE LOL

 

[KevinH]

At the end of the day, we're all here because we love weather. Some of us chase, some forecast, some just enjoy learning. Let's give each other a little grace including the moderators.

I am sure this group already went though the posting guidelines a couple years ago. Threads with long duration periods in the title is confusing. Especially when several separate systems are coming through at the same time or one after the other. I would rather not read anything in here if it's going to get confusing again. Just my two cents

Having said that, I am going to go read the posting guidelines again before making another thread for a severe event lol

 

[N0mz]

Right... one of the oddest things I have seen.... IN JUNE LOL

According to TA, in LA/MS/AL/GA there are 8 ef3s+ in June-August ever

 

[KevinH]

According to TA, in LA/MS/AL/GA there are 8 ef3s+ in June-August ever

Who or what is TA? lol

I've lived in GA for about 15 years. This kind of (POSSIBLE) weather is BEYOND wild. Very VERY strange..

 

[N0mz]

Who or what is TA? lol

I've lived in GA for about 15 years. This kind of (POSSIBLE) weather is BEYOND wild. Very VERY strange..

Tornado Archive

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Excuse my French, but parameter space-wise, 21z RAP..... Holy excrement. That's a high end event.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Who or what is TA? lol

I've lived in GA for about 15 years. This kind of (POSSIBLE) weather is BEYOND wild. Very VERY strange..

Pretty sure we had a pattern similar to this just 3 years ago where Dixie was favored and had several days of significant severe weather. Certain patterns favor unusual anomalies. Dixie Alley can be interesting any month WHEN the pattern utilises it.

 

[genie]

The RAP is painting a very colorful picture. I'm guessing we see a moderate risk issued within an outlook or two.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Regardless of contamination I have literally never seen a sounding (modeled or observed) with above 1100 esrh and non-negligible cape. Nearest I've seen is this RUC sounding from 2011 at Columbus AFB: View attachment 53436

Yeah, really only 1 day comes to mind with that kind of helicity...

 

[speedbump305]

Excuse my French, but parameter space-wise, 21z RAP..... Holy excrement. That's a high end event.

Let’s see it. This event is truly loading up to be quite a high end event.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[genie]

I don't know what Illinois/Indiana did to anger the weather gods this year, but it feels like it's just been one hit after another.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Yeah, really only 1 day comes to mind with that kind of helicity...

Was thinking the same thing. And this sounding is a whole 600 m2s2 above that day on the 0-3km level. You could subtract 2011 from this sounding, and still have a violent-tornado, upper-echelon parameter space with just the difference between those two values. 1700 m2s2 is inconceivably high. It almost has to be a glitch.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Here. 20z - 3pm. Just wow.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I'm seeing a lot across different platforms calling for LLLRs to be a big issue here, but seems like they've all forgot that with strong forcing for ascent that LLLRs really don't matter when it comes to storm development like @andyhb said.

When you're dealing with the nose of the jet directly overlapping the warm sector, with very adequate instability ignoring the isotropic convection north of the warm front, storms will not falter to form. Remember this when we get closer.

 

[Tennie]

I'm seeing a lot across different platforms calling for LLLRs to be a big issue here, but seems like they've all forgot that with strong forcing for ascent that LLLRs really don't matter when it comes to storm development like @andyhb said.

When you're dealing with the nose of the jet directly overlapping the warm sector, with very adequate instability ignoring the isotropic convection north of the warm front, storms will not falter to form. Remember this when we get closer.

I made the mistake of prematurely writing off last Thursday due to mediocre LLLRs. Seeing that we could have a roughly similar setup this Wednesday, I’m going to watch this system more closely.