I'm guessing the comment was transferred from the other thread that was deleted already. Not this thread being deleted.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #42
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, hence my initial confusion. I understood that after a quick look over the comments again.
- Thread starter
- #43
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Having a feeling this day may run down to potential prefrontal development. Runs are trending towards less discrete mode and potentially a MCS as was always possible. But right now, high ceiling exists for EF3+ tornadoes with any development out ahead
Kds86z
Member
Thank you for changing dates back @WeathermanLeprechaun. I agree completely
- Admin
- #45
I have changed the dates to include today through the 18th. There is enough possibilities for today through the 18th to discuss especially leading up to the major days for the 17th and 18th.
Kds86z
Member
.
Care to share which possibilities referring to?
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- Thread starter
- #47
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Sure can't wait to discuss high based storms later in the TX Panhandle with the little, scuddy funnel! Could be a intriguing day to track, no doubt.
RAP is starting to get into range and it looks absolutely bananas already. This is in Southeast Iowa and Western Illinois (basically the same area as our last outbreak). A 73/69 temp DP spread is pretty nuts for mid-June. Not surprising all the analogs are early May and April. My two biggest takeaways are the unreal sheer and Helicity, and the fact there's actually going to be an EML. This is looking like a major supercell outbreak if I ever saw one. Is there a chance we get our first high-risk of the year?
Looks like the LLJ, 500 MB, and 250 MB are all going to align as well so ventilation shouldn't be an issue. That is one very deep and powerful shortwave.
Looks like the LLJ, 500 MB, and 250 MB are all going to align as well so ventilation shouldn't be an issue. That is one very deep and powerful shortwave.
Based on the extreme significance of the 17th and 18th, I'm not sure it makes sense to include the 15th and 16th in this thread. If they need a specific thread (which i'm not sure they do) it should probably be separate from this one. We should keep this one strictly focused and categorized to these two main days. If anything, I'm actually kind of leaning more towards splitting the 17th and 18th into separate threads. Especially now that the 18th may include dixie alley, which is the majority of this site's users. The 17th is looking like the most potentially significant severe weather day of the year.
Another major element to note is, for the first time this year, the Euro and GFS are in perfect agreement on the timing and location of a sub 990 mb low. I didn't even think it was possible! Those height falls are a thing of (terrifying) beauty.
edit: The Nam agrees too
edit: The Nam agrees too
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Let's not ignore the tornado risk for Gulf Coast as well as further inland late this week especially if this tropical system develops. Of course, track will ultimately dictate the tornadic threat and other risks.
- Admin
- #53
At the end of the day, we're all here because we love weather. Some of us chase, some forecast, some just enjoy learning. Let's give each other a little grace including the moderators.
I hope my comment didn't seem critical! Thank you for helping out.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
Holy hell, they went 45cig 1 even with uncertainty's they did the 45# insane def a upper-end day it seems
Well the 12z GSL MPAS is certifiably insane. Has long-lived supercells in IL/IN in one of the highest end environments I've ever seen Wednesday afternoon.
jiharris0220
Member
I honestly think they’re leaning in too much with the uncertainty regarding the morning convection.
Regardless of how much there is, it’s all isentrophic, (north of the warmfront) so it doesn’t really matter.
The orientation of this system is unusual, (it’s orientation is southeast to northwest), this allows for a unique scenario where convection north of the warm front can actually move south of it and become surface based. The MPAS shows this well.
The tornado threat is likely to come from three separate areas of convection
1. Isentrophic lift convection propagating into the warm sector and becoming surface based. (These storms will have the most ample amount of deep layer shear and low level shear available, but vertical instability is a bit limited, though definitely still sufficient)
2. Dryline convection. (These storms will have the lowest shear environment, but the highest vertical instability values available)
3. OWS convection. (Considering the lack of an inversion layer, and exceptional forcing, these seem likely, and will have the middle ground in terms of shear and instability)
Either way, an all hazards threat and an even more impressive set up than the one last Thursday.
US_Highway15
Member
Golly, the power companies are just now finishing up restoring all the power in the Northern Indiana area and are gonna get hosed again. I feel for them man.
jiharris0220
Member
The Midwest in general has been a focus fire area this year.
Strong south east ridging combined with a persistent Hudson Bay low has lead to many trough injections this year staying relatively far north.
But back to this system I haven’t seen Synoptics like this in June before. At the very least I don’t remember seeing something like this in June before.
That's some dynamic piping right there