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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Why did mods extend this thread to the 21st? This isn't a particularly notable long duration sequence coming up. It's best to leave it at the 17th-18th. I made this thread for these days, don't delete it. I'm changing this title back. Last thread used the 6 day addition right, there is no need to delete this one.

Second edit: I'm getting confused with both comments form the threads merged.

I'm not aware that I used the wrong tag, but if so, apologies. I asked a mod to pin the thread in the SW2026 area and, it would've been seen plenty more.
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I'm guessing the comment was transferred from the other thread that was deleted already. Not this thread being deleted.
 
Having a feeling this day may run down to potential prefrontal development. Runs are trending towards less discrete mode and potentially a MCS as was always possible. But right now, high ceiling exists for EF3+ tornadoes with any development out ahead
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Why did mods extend this thread to the 21st? This isn't a particularly notable long duration sequence coming up. It's best to leave it at the 17th-18th. I made this thread for these days, don't delete it. I'm changing this title back. Last thread used the 6 day addition right, there is no need to delete this one.

Second edit: I'm getting confused with both comments form the threads merged.

I'm not aware that I used the wrong tag, but if so, apologies. I asked a mod to pin the thread in the SW2026 area and, it would've been seen plenty more.
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Thank you for changing dates back @WeathermanLeprechaun. I agree completely
 
I have changed the dates to include today through the 18th. There is enough possibilities for today through the 18th to discuss especially leading up to the major days for the 17th and 18th.
 
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JayF said:
I have changed the dates to include today through the 18th. There is enough possibilities for today through the 18th to discuss especially leading up to the major days for the 17th and 18th.
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Care to share which possibilities referring to?
 

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RAP is starting to get into range and it looks absolutely bananas already. This is in Southeast Iowa and Western Illinois (basically the same area as our last outbreak). A 73/69 temp DP spread is pretty nuts for mid-June. Not surprising all the analogs are early May and April. My two biggest takeaways are the unreal sheer and Helicity, and the fact there's actually going to be an EML. This is looking like a major supercell outbreak if I ever saw one. Is there a chance we get our first high-risk of the year?

1781547363180.png1781547539694.png

Looks like the LLJ, 500 MB, and 250 MB are all going to align as well so ventilation shouldn't be an issue. That is one very deep and powerful shortwave.

1781547765020.png1781547777892.png1781547799353.png
 
JayF said:
I have changed the dates to include today through the 18th. There is enough possibilities for today through the 18th to discuss especially leading up to the major days for the 17th and 18th.
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Based on the extreme significance of the 17th and 18th, I'm not sure it makes sense to include the 15th and 16th in this thread. If they need a specific thread (which i'm not sure they do) it should probably be separate from this one. We should keep this one strictly focused and categorized to these two main days. If anything, I'm actually kind of leaning more towards splitting the 17th and 18th into separate threads. Especially now that the 18th may include dixie alley, which is the majority of this site's users. The 17th is looking like the most potentially significant severe weather day of the year.
 
Another major element to note is, for the first time this year, the Euro and GFS are in perfect agreement on the timing and location of a sub 990 mb low. I didn't even think it was possible! Those height falls are a thing of (terrifying) beauty.

1781548663592.png1781548694232.png

edit: The Nam agrees too

1781549972783.png
 
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