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Severe WX Severe Weather Event 3/28/17-3/31/17

Richardjacks said:
There may be just enough instability to fire a few storms in north Alabama this afternoon and evening. If so, they will need to be watched closely with just enough speed shear available and maybe some enhanced low level shear due to leftover boundaries.
Click to expand...
The wind is howling here in Cullman, in the last few minutes, strongest it's been all day, don't know if that means anything.
 
Same here in limestone county, very persistent low level winds. Feels more humid than a couple hours ago.
 
MD 0382 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...FAR SOUTHEAST AL...FAR SOUTHWEST GA
​



Mesoscale Discussion 0382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Western/central FL Panhandle...Far southeast
AL...Far southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302133Z - 302300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective line approaching the region may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. Trends across the region
will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Well-developed convective line extending from far
southern AL into the northeast Gulf of Mexico is expected to
continue eastward/northeastward over the next several hours. Current
storm motion estimate for this line is northeastward (230-240
degrees) at 40 kt, which brings it near VPS around 22Z and to ECP
around 23Z. The airmass downstream of the line across the
west/central FL Panhandle and southeast AL/southwest GA is
characterized by temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, dewpoints
in mid 50s to mid 60s, and modest instability. Mesoanalysis
estimates the MLCAPE is currently around 500 J/kg. Low-level
southeasterly flow ahead of the line will help advect better
low-level moisture into the region, resulting in a modest increase
in instability just ahead of the line. This southeasterly low-level
flow will also contribute to better low-level shear, resulting in a
non-zero tornado threat, particularly given the anticipated
moistening of the airmass. Additionally, some forward propagation of
the line may result, contributing to increased threat for damaging
wind gusts. However, coverage of these severe events is currently
expected to be isolated, owing primarily the limited extent of the
better low-level moisture and the resulting less-favorable
thermodynamics inland from the coastal areas. Even so, the
well-developed nature of the approaching line bears watching and
trends across the region will be monitored closely for potential
watch issuance.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30248710 30768714 31198700 31288573 31078505 30708460
29578491 30108591 30248710


Read more

For additional SPC information click here
 
MD 0383 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE
​



Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley southward to
western/middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103...

Valid 302240Z - 302345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103
continues.

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will push eastward out of
the current severe thunderstorm watch this evening. While a marginal
damaging-wind risk may persist downstream of this watch,
thunderstorms should remain disorganized enough to preclude new
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms across portions
of the Ohio Valley southward to western Tennessee are progressing
eastward early this evening. While relatively strong southerly
uni-directional flow aloft and mixed low-level profiles may favor an
isolated damaging-wind threat through mid evening, convection should
remain relatively disorganized. This expectation is based on the
observation of veered near-surface flow noted in regional
observations and VWP data ahead of the line, as well as the narrow
buoyancy observed in the 20Z OHX sounding and various forecast
soundings. Additionally, efficient diabatic cooling will reduce
surface-based buoyancy through this evening. In turn, updraft
accelerations should suffer from weak low-level convergence and
considerable dry-air entrainment, likely precluding greater
convective organization and the need for a downstream watch.

..Picca.. 03/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36718825 38438760 38568701 38698587 38588539 36928554
35698634 35448798 35778856 36718825


Read more

For additional SPC information click here
 
MD 0384 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO
​



Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

Valid 302305Z - 310000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

SUMMARY...An occasional damaging-wind risk will exist across
portions of southern/central Indiana over the next couple of hours
before diminishing this evening. A low-end tornado threat may also
persist in the near term close to the warm front across central
Indiana and Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms continues east across
central/southern Indiana this evening, aided by downstream
propagation within a relatively dry/well-mixed low-level
environment. This thermodynamic profile, combined with ample
uni-directional southwesterly flow, will maintain some damaging-wind
risk with small bowing segments through the early/mid evening hours.
However, due to the dry near-surface profile, diabatic cooling
should quickly render a stabilizing boundary layer, reducing the
threat for gusty/damaging winds.

Farther northeast, a very narrow corridor exists for low-end tornado
potential at the warm front. Here, backed surface flow yields more
notable veering with height, which may briefly yield low-level
mesocyclones and a quick uptick in tornadic potential. However,
similar to the damaging-wind risk, this threat should diminish
further over the next few hours.

Lastly, a gradual increase in large-scale ascent over Ohio has
yielded a few strong/briefly severe cells rooted above the surface.
Despite relatively narrow buoyancy profiles, strong effective shear
may continue to be sufficient for isolated instances of marginally
severe hail this evening. However, due to the low-end nature of the
threat, watch issuance is not expected.

..Picca.. 03/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 38608726 40558623 41058419 40718117 40488083 39728154
39368429 38738600 38608726


Read more

For additional SPC information click here
 
Line of cells building in Limestone and Lawrence Counties in north Alabama. Just popped up over the last hour.
 
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