Severe WX Severe Weather Event 3/28/17-3/31/17

[Kory]

This is pretty much toast as a higher end event....

 

[Bama Ravens]

Looks like the Enhanced Risk has been trimmed back quite significantly.

Yep, totally out of AL and MS now. Just yesterday, both states had areas in the moderate risk.

 

[pritchlaw]

Lots of rain

After looking at radar tonight and new models, I am beginning to believe there isn't going to be much in Alabama. Could be wrong, but looking at radar right now, I could see how the line could disrupt the flow and/or reduce CAPE across the state.

Richard, looking at what is developing now, what do you think regarding the rain to the S and SW of Central Alabama at the moment?

 

[Hailey]

Suns out in Hillsboro


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[WesL]

Suns out in Hillsboro


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I feel this is a fitting tune to our progression from forecasting to nowcasting with this system.

 

[MichelleH]

Suns out in Hillsboro


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It's trying to come out in Hanceville as well.

 

[Hailey]

The temperature is slowly climbing over the last 30 minutes


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[pritchlaw]

Getting really windy in Warrior. Spann blog says high winds moving through this area soon.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

HRRR seemed to have a good handle on things this morning. It has consistently showed upscale growth of the convective line as it moves out of LA into Southern MS and AL. Also, convection along the front (N MS) tries to get going later today. Some stronger, marginally severe, cores could develop in these areas. This solution seems reasonable to me, given the current disposition of the environment. And I'm beginning to think the SLGT may not verify.

 

[Matt Grantham]

HRRR seemed to have a good handle on things this morning. It has consistently showed upscale growth of the convective line as it moves out of LA into Southern MS and AL. Also, convection along the front (N MS) tries to get going later today. Some stronger, marginally severe, cores could develop in these areas. This solution seems reasonable to me, given the current disposition of the environment. And I'm beginning to think the SLGT may not verify.

Agree. I'm wondering if it's even going to rain (sarcasm).

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

Looks like the severe weather chance has increased for Atlanta.

 

[pritchlaw]

If this doesn't do anything, I think a lot of people will start paying less attention to severe weather outlooks more than 24 hours out from the event. In my area, we've had several consecutive events forecast 2 days out to be fairly significant and turn out to be pretty much nothing. When that happens too many times in a row, people get real cynical.

 

[WesL]

WKRG (Mobile) discussing severe threats today.

 

[Matt Grantham]

If this doesn't do anything, I think a lot of people will start paying less attention to severe weather outlooks more than 24 hours out from the event. In my area, we've had several consecutive events forecast 2 days out to be fairly significant and turn out to be pretty much nothing. When that happens too many times in a row, people get real cynical.

3 not so stellar forecasts in a row more than 24 hours out. The event on 3/25 was overplayed by SPC. However the 3/27 event was underplayed as we wound up with numerous hail reports. And well this event...

Accuracy doesn't get you anything anymore. I've spent my entire career trying to preach science and forecasting, but nobody cares.

 

[Bama Ravens]

BMX says that model guidance doesn't match up with mesoscale developments.

I don't know what to think about this event.

 

[Bama Ravens]

HRRR says stick a fork in it. Doesn't even really get any sustained development in MS.

 

[WesL]

JP Dice is tweeting ...

 

[JayF]

Schools are starting to make the decision to let out. Lawrence County Schools are closing at 1 pm

 

[Xenesthis]

Sun is out in Murfreesboro and it's already mid 70's... Spann says confidence is very low and it's the most challenging forecast his has had. Mesoscale and model information differs greatly.. should be interesting

 

[Bama Ravens]

I am noticing some better CAPE values trying to work their way north out of the Gulf, could the coastal convection be moving too slow and end up not preventing higher CAPE values from moving in?