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Severe WX Severe Weather Event 3/28/17-3/31/17

Lots of rain
Richardjacks said:
After looking at radar tonight and new models, I am beginning to believe there isn't going to be much in Alabama. Could be wrong, but looking at radar right now, I could see how the line could disrupt the flow and/or reduce CAPE across the state.
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Richard, looking at what is developing now, what do you think regarding the rain to the S and SW of Central Alabama at the moment?
 
Getting really windy in Warrior. Spann blog says high winds moving through this area soon.
 
HRRR seemed to have a good handle on things this morning. It has consistently showed upscale growth of the convective line as it moves out of LA into Southern MS and AL. Also, convection along the front (N MS) tries to get going later today. Some stronger, marginally severe, cores could develop in these areas. This solution seems reasonable to me, given the current disposition of the environment. And I'm beginning to think the SLGT may not verify.
 
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NorthGaWeather said:
HRRR seemed to have a good handle on things this morning. It has consistently showed upscale growth of the convective line as it moves out of LA into Southern MS and AL. Also, convection along the front (N MS) tries to get going later today. Some stronger, marginally severe, cores could develop in these areas. This solution seems reasonable to me, given the current disposition of the environment. And I'm beginning to think the SLGT may not verify.
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Agree. I'm wondering if it's even going to rain (sarcasm).
 
If this doesn't do anything, I think a lot of people will start paying less attention to severe weather outlooks more than 24 hours out from the event. In my area, we've had several consecutive events forecast 2 days out to be fairly significant and turn out to be pretty much nothing. When that happens too many times in a row, people get real cynical.
 
WKRG (Mobile) discussing severe threats today.

 
pritchlaw said:
If this doesn't do anything, I think a lot of people will start paying less attention to severe weather outlooks more than 24 hours out from the event. In my area, we've had several consecutive events forecast 2 days out to be fairly significant and turn out to be pretty much nothing. When that happens too many times in a row, people get real cynical.
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3 not so stellar forecasts in a row more than 24 hours out. The event on 3/25 was overplayed by SPC. However the 3/27 event was underplayed as we wound up with numerous hail reports. And well this event...

Accuracy doesn't get you anything anymore. I've spent my entire career trying to preach science and forecasting, but nobody cares.
 
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JP Dice is tweeting ...

 
Schools are starting to make the decision to let out. Lawrence County Schools are closing at 1 pm
 
Sun is out in Murfreesboro and it's already mid 70's... Spann says confidence is very low and it's the most challenging forecast his has had. Mesoscale and model information differs greatly.. should be interesting
 
I am noticing some better CAPE values trying to work their way north out of the Gulf, could the coastal convection be moving too slow and end up not preventing higher CAPE values from moving in?

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