Severe WX Severe Weather Event 3/28/17-3/31/17

[Kory]

After this weekend's occluded trough kicks out, we're going to have a few days of return flow and atmospheric recovery with a flow out of the Gulf. All models are indicating a large scale trough ejecting from the Plains into the MS Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Latest trend in the models have kept this thing more of an open trough, which is more favorable for severe wx. It looks to begin over the Southern Plains and Ark/La/Tex Wednesday as a significant trough digs into the Southern Plains and surface low cyclogenesis takes place lee side of the Rockies.

Euro and GFS both show a loaded warm sector, but exact trough evolution is still unclear. Either way, it's going to be stormy to close out this coming week.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Yeah, looking like this could be a very potent set up. Could be a rather significant threat.

CAPE values are really high back towards the Mississippi River Thursday afternoon.

But the GFS doesn't bring that into north-central Alabama

 

[Kory]

Trough evolution is part of that. I have pay site available to Euro maps and its showing CAPE values in excess to 1500 J/KG up to the AL/TN border....

UKMET and Euro are very similar, which is a reliable combo to have. GFS seems to be playing catch up, but has had some large variability run to run.

 

[warneagle]

SPC already has an enhanced risk for Day 3.

 

[Bama Ravens]

BMX already has a graphic out for Thursday:

 

[warneagle]

Count me in as very interested. SPC already mentioning a potential upgrade to MDT for tomorrow.

 

[PerryW]

Am concerned Thursday could be a very active/ serious day from KY/TN southward to AL / LA/ MS. A good friend who's an experienced met is very concerned there could be a tornado outbreak from late Wed thru Thurs/ Thur night across the deep south.

 

[Kory]

Count me in as very interested. SPC already mentioning a potential upgrade to MDT for tomorrow.

NAM and company look quite serious along the dry line tomorrow in TX and OK....

 

[warneagle]

NAM and company look quite serious along the dry line tomorrow in TX and OK....

Yeah, right along the Red River there in northwest Texas looks like a really good setup.

 

[Kory]

One caveat for Thursday's threat for places further east will be the possibility of a Gulf convective complex which could cut off best northward moisture transport...

 

[Kory]

SPC upgraded to moderate risk, driven by 45% hatched hail across TX and far SW OK.

 

[TornadoFan]

SPC upgraded to moderate risk, driven by 45% hatched hail across TX and far SW OK.

Looks like they're not going to introduce a 15% tornado risk right now.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like they're not going to introduce a 15% tornado risk right now.

Rightfully so. Too many potential flies in the ointment with early convection, some degree of VBV wind profiles and the duration/extent that favorable (discrete supercell) convective mode will overlap with the most favorable parameter space.

 

[GTWXAlum]

One caveat for Thursday's threat for places further east will be the possibility of a Gulf convective complex which could cut off best northward moisture transport...

Fwiw, latest GFS is much more aggressive than the Euro with respect to coastal convection on Thursday. If the Euro is right, then seemingly the inland threat would be much more substantial.

 

[warneagle]

Strong rotation between Dickens and Guthrie.

 

[Kory]

Strong rotation between Dickens and Guthrie.

Looks like we've got 2 pretty good supercells rotating (I believe there is a tornado on the one NW of Abeline).

 

[warneagle]

Meteorologist in the Abilene area tweeted that a tornado touched down briefly west of Dyess AFB.

 

[warneagle]

TOG near Stamford, TX. Looks like there have been several brief touchdowns in northwest Texas.

 

[KoD]

TOG near Stamford, TX. Looks like there have been several brief touchdowns in northwest Texas.

Has a PDS warning, must be pretty decent size and near population

 

[warneagle]

Moderate risk is up for day two with mention of strong tornadoes and very large hail.