• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
  • April 2024 Weather Video of the Month
    Post your nominations now!

Severe WX Severe Weather Event 3/28/17-3/31/17

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
After this weekend's occluded trough kicks out, we're going to have a few days of return flow and atmospheric recovery with a flow out of the Gulf. All models are indicating a large scale trough ejecting from the Plains into the MS Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Latest trend in the models have kept this thing more of an open trough, which is more favorable for severe wx. It looks to begin over the Southern Plains and Ark/La/Tex Wednesday as a significant trough digs into the Southern Plains and surface low cyclogenesis takes place lee side of the Rockies.

Euro and GFS both show a loaded warm sector, but exact trough evolution is still unclear. Either way, it's going to be stormy to close out this coming week.

D3UUrd4.gif

6jWFd5l.gif
 

Bama Ravens

Member
Messages
1,229
Reaction score
686
Location
Morris, AL (Northern Jefferson County)
Yeah, looking like this could be a very potent set up. Could be a rather significant threat.

CAPE values are really high back towards the Mississippi River Thursday afternoon.

sbcape.us_se.png


But the GFS doesn't bring that into north-central Alabama

sbcape.us_se.png
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Trough evolution is part of that. I have pay site available to Euro maps and its showing CAPE values in excess to 1500 J/KG up to the AL/TN border....

UKMET and Euro are very similar, which is a reliable combo to have. GFS seems to be playing catch up, but has had some large variability run to run.
 

PerryW

Member
Rest in Peace
Honorary Meteorologist
Messages
144
Reaction score
136
Location
Wilsonville, Oregon
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Am concerned Thursday could be a very active/ serious day from KY/TN southward to AL / LA/ MS. A good friend who's an experienced met is very concerned there could be a tornado outbreak from late Wed thru Thurs/ Thur night across the deep south.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
One caveat for Thursday's threat for places further east will be the possibility of a Gulf convective complex which could cut off best northward moisture transport...
 
Messages
3,026
Reaction score
5,234
Location
Madison, WI
Looks like they're not going to introduce a 15% tornado risk right now.

Rightfully so. Too many potential flies in the ointment with early convection, some degree of VBV wind profiles and the duration/extent that favorable (discrete supercell) convective mode will overlap with the most favorable parameter space.
 

GTWXAlum

Member
Messages
125
Reaction score
67
Location
Nashville, Tennessee
One caveat for Thursday's threat for places further east will be the possibility of a Gulf convective complex which could cut off best northward moisture transport...

Fwiw, latest GFS is much more aggressive than the Euro with respect to coastal convection on Thursday. If the Euro is right, then seemingly the inland threat would be much more substantial.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
4,105
Reaction score
4,259
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Meteorologist in the Abilene area tweeted that a tornado touched down briefly west of Dyess AFB.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
4,105
Reaction score
4,259
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
TOG near Stamford, TX. Looks like there have been several brief touchdowns in northwest Texas.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
4,105
Reaction score
4,259
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Moderate risk is up for day two with mention of strong tornadoes and very large hail.
 
Back
Top