I do have some concerns that Monday's event could end up being overnight.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
slenker
Member
I have thread length PTSD from 3/15 last year. 100+ pages like, two days before the event.
genie
Member
Yeah I was stalking y'all back then and it blew my mind. I can't imagine what the forums were like in 2011.
bckhd2
Member
You can actually go back and see the thread from 4/27/2011 recapped. I think it's only 85 or so pages for the whole event, pretty remarkable. A lot of really good discussion in that thread
Now imagine if the user count around that time was what it is now!
N0mz
Member
To be fair, the forum back then seemed much more Dixie-centric, and a lot of them were without power that day.
Also, the 21z RAP is pretty extreme for Sunday, actually. SBCIN @ 00z is zero basically across the board.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I just read back on the OMEGA Project to revise.
Monday's trough begins in Central NM and ends around W IL using the 18 hr jet translation speed as I've already mentioned.
Whilst reading it, i noticed a particular day that matched this exact sequence. The jet began in Central NM and ended in W IL by 00z.
What event was it? 12/10/21. Take with it what you will, both jets exactly max out at 47.3 kts. Take this into consideration the next few days, as there is simply no denying both jets are extremely similar and practically identical.
Monday's trough begins in Central NM and ends around W IL using the 18 hr jet translation speed as I've already mentioned.
Whilst reading it, i noticed a particular day that matched this exact sequence. The jet began in Central NM and ended in W IL by 00z.
What event was it? 12/10/21. Take with it what you will, both jets exactly max out at 47.3 kts. Take this into consideration the next few days, as there is simply no denying both jets are extremely similar and practically identical.
slenker
Member
The scary part is that 12/10/21 had an incredible outbreak… in December, overnight. It’s April, we’ve got nasty thermos with it, and it’s paired with favorable timing too. If Sunday’s event doesn’t temper the threat for Monday, it’s got big time trouble written all over it.
Well, considering that the thermodynamics are supposed to be even better on 04/27/26 than they were on 12/10/21, adding that level of kinematics to such an environment dhould raise quite a lot of hair!
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,863
- Reaction score
- 4,242
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
MEG Nws Memphis keeps on getting more aggressive with their afd Good write up just came out hour ago
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I don't want to say much but I'll go ahead and put this out.
This is practically the same evolution of sorts unfolding for Monday as it did that week in December given the jet. The only differences are the patterns before it. It may be up to Sunday to determine if this ceiling falls through given that we are dealing with a trough that brought historic results in December and now tie it with late April thermos, this could be big time trouble.
Man
Man that thread was craZy, the build up 2 days prior and the realization that it had the possibility to live up to being like april 27th could be a chance. Thankfully that event did not live up to its potential. The hrrr simulated radar and up drafts swaths where a nightmare.Now imagine if the user count around that time was what it is now!
speedbump305
Member
I’m not gonna lie, i’m really worried about Monday. I’m not feeling too well so I won’t bother doing a ramble i’ll leave that up to the pros lol, but so far this has a lot of the building blocks of a high end event and i’m nervous to see the model runs for the next few days
warneagle
Member
sacre bleu!Paris, Texas, is now under a tornado warning. I just wish it wasn't in a radar hole...
there are also a bunch of severe warnings in mississippi, way out at the far end of the slight risk. nothing tornadic.
Paris, Texas, is now under a tornado warning. I just wish it wasn't in a radar hole...
Has periodically produced, wouldn't be surprised if it is on the ground.
warneagle
Member
man that really is an egregious radar hole considering how much severe weather that area gets. that's worse than the ArkLaMiss one even.
Definitely needs its own thread IMO. i think we will see a lot of discussion as it gets closer, and we dont want it to distract from today, saturday, and sunday. We saw that it was a good idea to give yesterday its own thread, and monday has a lot higher potential than that.
Even more irritating knowing there is a private radar right in the center of it...