Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

[lake.effect]

Waaaayyy too early to tell. Moderate is pretty likely though.

Fortune favors the bold. I'm not saying I'm right. I made a prediction, deliberately far in advance, and we'll see if I'm right.

 

[eep]

East storm tor warning has been upgraded, probably a murky tornado in that mess.

 

[ThatGuy;P]

My question about Monday is less focused on if we get a HIGH risk (To even further beat the 2018ing allegations) and more on the much more present thought of whether or not we wake up to a day 3 MDT.

 

[slenker]

Fortune favors the bold. I'm not saying I'm right. I made a prediction, deliberately far in advance, and we'll see if I'm right.

The 18z NAM taken verbatim definitely would be a high risk worthy day, but 1) it's the NAM just coming into range, and 2) it's the first shorter range model that sees this, we don't have the HRRR or much of the NSSL models in range yet. That being said, with what we've got now, if any day in this upcoming sequence is going high risk, it's Monday imo. Ballsy prediction, but I can see the logic behind it.

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado Otg Oklahoma probably strong.

 

[ColdFront]

I would actually argue Sunday isn’t nearly as favorable as it was, even 24 hours ago. That probably makes Monday even more primed in turn.

 

[eep]

I would actually argue Sunday isn’t nearly as favorable as it was, even 24 hours ago. That probably makes Monday even more primed in turn.

I think it could be a decent day before the day, with it probably ending up like yesterday. Definitely not a widespread outbreak however. Also looks like tomorrow is probably also a mesoscale day like today. First outbreak sequence of the year.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Of course, the devil's in the details to determine exactly how bad it will be, but Monday certainly has the potential to be on the level of other high-end MS Valley outbreaks of the recent past, such as 3/14/25 and 3/31/23.

 

[Maxis_s]

Does anyone have a livestream of this storm? It's impossible to tell anything without a visual.

 

[slenker]

Tor-warned storm near Pittsburg, OK apparently has a damaging cone tornado associated with it, according to one of Max's chasers. Velocities have been pretty impressive with it for a good bit now.

 

[Kds86z]

Of course, the devil's in the details to determine exactly how bad it will be, but Monday certainly has the potential to be on the level of other high-end MS Valley outbreaks of the recent past, such as 3/14/25 and 3/31/23.

Woah

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Maxis_s]

Albion, OK has to watch out. Significant mid-level mesocyclone on tilt 2 and higher beginning to rapidly intensify and tighten.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm to the southeast of Sulphur, Oklahoma.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Monday reminds me also like 4/1/ 25.

 

[Tennie]

Wapanucka, Oklahoma, is getting absolutely pounded with hail. Hail up to at least tennis ball-size has been reported, which seems to align well with what GRLevel2's Maximum Expected Hail Size (MEHS) algorithm also shows for that area.

Monday reminds me also like 4/1/ 25.

Don't you mean 4/2/2025? 4/1 greatly underperformed, while 4/2 ended up performing about as the SPC expected.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[eep]

Storm near Moyers OK is hooking, former tornado producer.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Wapanucka, Oklahoma, is getting absolutely pounded with hail. Hail up to at least tennis ball-size has been reported, which seems to align well with what GRLevel2's Maximum Expected Hail Size (MEHS) algorithm also shows for that area.


Don't you mean 4/2/2025? 4/1 greatly underperformed, while 4/2 ended up performing about as the SPC expected.

Correct sorry