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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

Sig to intense all hazards tomorrow in SE OK. Volatile parameter space with SE moving supercells.

AS for Sunday, i didn't trust that 21z RAP with the really westward m placement of the DL, and the 00z HRRR might be more realistic. Heavily capped environment in E OK, environment capable of strong to potentially intense tors in SW KS with discrete activity and action up in SE NE. a bit of a NW trend here.

No new model data for Sunday yet, but moreso the same of what I've said. Significant svr event is becoming very plausible with intense tornadoes being a possibility.
 
Becoming very concerned for tomorrow as the CAMS continue to show a very high-end localized parameter space around tonight's storms outflow boundary with isolated supercells... both the HRRR and 3k also bring a very intense helicity streak through my neck of the woods in the Tulsa area. The helicity streaks in general are very intense for tomorrow.
 
I think people are overstating the impacts sat/sun/mon are going to have on each other. Both Saturday and Sunday are conditional on coverage and aren't really risking overconvection (AS IT STANDS). It's not as if we'll get this big blob of convection moving out on Sunday and Monday morning, eating up all the instability. Two or three big supes going up doesn't put that much of a dent in the synoptic-scale instability like a cold front does.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Multiple wind damage reports along with and or multiple tornados
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An outbreak sequence has nothing to do with hail or the amount of tornado reports. An outbreak sequence is different than a regular outbreak, and involves multiple separate troughs or storm system moving through back to back over an extended period of time, producing long lasting continuous tornado activity. They can last up to a week or more. Don’t respond if you don’t actually know the answer. That’s how misinformation gets spread.
 
N0mz said:
I think people are overstating the impacts sat/sun/mon are going to have on each other. Both Saturday and Sunday are conditional on coverage and aren't really risking overconvection (AS IT STANDS). It's not as if we'll get this big blob of convection moving out on Sunday and Monday morning, eating up all the instability. Two or three big supes going up doesn't put that much of a dent in the synoptic-scale instability like a cold front does.
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Tomorrow could overconvect based on the 0z HRRR, however I doubt that would do much as Sunday looks like it would be up in Kansas in comparison. Either way these next few days will be very interesting...
 
buckeye05 said:
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An outbreak sequence has nothing to do with hail or the amount of tornado reports. An outbreak sequence is different than a regular outbreak, and involves multiple separate troughs or storm system moving through back to back over an extended period of time, producing long lasting continuous tornado activity. They can last up to a week or more. Don’t respond if you don’t actually know the answer. That’s how misinformation gets spread.
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didn't 2008 and 2019 have month long outbreak seqs?? my memory isn't the best so correct me if I am mistaken
 
00Z NAM forecast soundings valid for 00Z Tuesday (Monday evening) have 700-900 m2/s2 inflow-layer SRH within the LLJ axis across northern Illinois. That brings to mind a certain day that it will be a significant anniversary of. Fortunately not with those same thermodynamic profiles, but still adequate instability to be quite dangerous when coupled with those kinematics.
 
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