Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

[Zabwxaj]

Looks like a TOG west of Lucedale. The line has really strengthened in the last 15 minutes.

 

[Kds86z]

Ok.. tornado outbreak and tornado sequence are two different things, but I got ya lol

Yeah I haven’t been sleeping much. I meant like on Wiki when they group like 2 or 3 days into an outbreak page. So the last couple days will be one total outbreak.

 

[Kds86z]

Looks like a TOG west of Lucedale. The line has really strengthened in the last 15 minutes.

 

[KevinH]

And it's here... I'm going to bed lol 40/20 probs

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Snipeslayer]

As someone who is learning still, what does the - -15 - - circled area around Columbus, GA represent just to the east of the primary discussion area of this graphic?

 

[Kds86z]

As someone who is learning still, what does the - -15 - - circled area around Columbus, GA represent just to the east of the primary discussion area of this graphic?

Not sure tbh.

 

[Snipeslayer]

Not sure tbh.

Thanks, I couldn't see anything particularly special outside of a popup of cape in that area?

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

Thanks, I couldn't see anything particularly special outside of a popup of cape in that area?

I see the DP and temps etc but not sure what that is

 

[Equus]

Storms look weaker from MOB now, but worth noting the beam is very attenuated right now as the storms pass over the radar site these last several scans; worth waiting to see what they look like in 15-30 minutes to see if they've really wound down that much

 

[buckeye05]

I could be wrong, but the more I look at the damage pics, the more I think the Aroma Park/Lake Village tornado will be likely be finalized as an EF3. The most impressive thing about it was the “explosive” debris pattern/wind rowing in Lake Village, but the foundation of the main house in question there appears to have been completely unreinforced CMU, meaning it likely came apart underneath whatever anchor bolts were present. This kind of structural failure makes the bolts essentially useless. While it’s not impossible for CMU foundation homes to be rated EF4, you almost always need some degree of reinforcement, or other evidence indicating that the CMU foundation held together at least somewhat well in order for EF4 to be assigned. Without additional contextual support besides the impressive debris pattern, I don’t really see how an upgrade could be justified. We shall see though.

 

[N0mz]

As someone who is learning still, what does the - -15 - - circled area around Columbus, GA represent just to the east of the primary discussion area of this graphic?

850 mb temps

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

My method struggles with methods that have poor low level shear but strong mid levels. As a result, I will tag any estimate on days like this as heavily conditional. Today, it reached 100 and that matches significant tornadoes. Clearly not verifying due to inversion and lack of strong low level shear at play.

Regardless, the tor threat will probably pick up soon

Never mind. With a potentially significant tornado from the QLCS last night, my method did do well after all. Nice verification

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

QLCS spam right now in SE AL. Line orientation is SPINNING.

 

[Clancy]

Holy couplets Batman.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Holy couplets Batman.
View attachment 51583View attachment 51584

Man, im heading to school in a min but this is ridiculous to watch. QLCS spam truly AR its craziest

 

[Clancy]

Man, im heading to school in a min but this is ridiculous to watch. QLCS spam truly AR its craziest

It's extending up through Georgia, too. Velocity is really borked this morning for some reason, but hints of rotation visible around Tyrone, for example, which has prompted SVR with Tornado Possible tag.

 

[Clancy]

SVR-only on these is understandable but I do think this is one of those cases where I wish there was something between SVR and TOR. Some of these are definitely dropping tornadoes.

 

[KevinH]

Watch it!