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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

Grand Poo Bah said:
I've reviewed all the available damage photos and have rating guesses.

1. Kankakee, IL - Despite looking absolutely monstrous yesterday I'd be surprised if Kankakee is rated higher than LE EF3. The foundation of the one home that was swept was half stone, and half CMU with no anchoring, and the one tree in the immediate vicinity was barely damaged. (First photo credit: Aaron Rigsby)

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2. Aroma Park, IL - Not sure if this was the same tornado from Kankakee or separate, but it looks HE EF3. It's an interesting case because despite heavy tree damage, a lot of homes' damage was relatively minor. I'm guessing they were possibly built to hurricane spec or something. (credit: Chicago tribune and Chicago & MW storm chasers)

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3. Lake Village, IN - based on the images and analysis posted here i'd say it definitely looks LE-mid EF4. The granulation, wind rowing, debarking, and swept well-constructed residence all have "the look"

4. Knox, IN and Wheatfield, IN - haven't seen any damage photos. Does anyone have any?
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Agreed on all counts here. If what we’re hearing is true, Lake Village has the potential to be a tree damage based EF4. I wonder if the surveyors strongly suspect that intensity level but are having issues due to the clearly unreinforced block foundations, and are having to use a more non-traditional route to justify such a rating. Hope that’s correct, because that’s the kind of surveying I like to hear about. I’m not at all confident that will be the case though.
 
I was watching storms enter Adams County, PA on radar and they split in half right as they crossed Jack's Mountain, part of the Blue Ridge. It's incredible how often that happens. You'll pardon the local rambling but it never fails to amaze me how facets of the Appalachian range affect storms. I suppose the inverse effect is in Sand Mountain Magic
 
buckeye05 said:
Agreed on all counts here. If what we’re hearing is true, Lake Village has the potential to be a tree damage based EF4. I wonder if the surveyors strongly suspect that intensity level but are having issues due to the clearly unreinforced block foundations, and are having to use a more non-traditional route to justify such a rating. Hope that’s correct, because that’s the kind of surveying I like to hear about. I’m not at all confident that will be the case though.
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Yeah I lack confidence in any rating higher than EF3 outta the event. Although the barnsdall comparisons are true, that was a much more violent tornado.
 
buckeye05 said:
Agreed on all counts here. If what we’re hearing is true, Lake Village has the potential to be a tree damage based EF4. I wonder if the surveyors strongly suspect that intensity level but are having issues due to the clearly unreinforced block foundations, and are having to use a more non-traditional route to justify such a rating. Hope that’s correct, because that’s the kind of surveying I like to hear about. I’m not at all confident that will be the case though.
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This is definitely the best aerial of the area. It's super difficult to tell, but can't rule out grass scouring either.



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speedbump305 said:
This damage is actually pretty impressive not gonna lie. The rowing and debris scatter alone is quite indicative of a pretty intense tornado.
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Was going to say this. This is fairly impressive debris pattern wise. Not much piling or large structural components remaining, distribution and length of debris scatter is pretty substantial, and definitely some rowing. It’s not like these homes just slid and collapsed into a heap.
 
buckeye05 said:
Was going to say this. This is fairly impressive debris pattern wise. Not much piling or large structural components remaining, distribution and length of debris scatter is pretty substantial, and definitely some rowing. It’s not like these homes just slid and collapsed into a heap.
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If you zoom in as well, it’s definitely not out of the possibility that some granulation may have occurred. Far from positive on that though. Obviously still early, but I wouldn’t rule out EF4 intensity in this area.
 
N0mz said:
That is... very strong wording for a pretty low-end event IMO. My thoughts for the DC area (again copy-pasted from americanwx):

Almost clear in DC, although we still might have some cloud deck coming in, according to vis sat. Already 84/54 at DCA, so it will be nearly impossible for storms to get down to the surface. The HRRR and RRFS are progging ~500 CAPE peak for DC, while the NAM nest and RAP are >1000. Usually, I'd lean towards the RAP, but both it and the NAM are initializing too cold (3 degrees or so), so I'll lean towards the HRRR and RRFF, which show a kind of isolated low-topped supercell event. Maybe some small hail.
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yeah never let me forecast again
 
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