Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

[ColdFront]

View attachment 51340

You can see the bulge from the northerly winds. However, it hasn’t pushed the warm sector that far down, especially if any convection were to fire in central Illinois.

 

[GXSC]

I spent half of my childhood and my teenage years in Peoria, dang. I still remember the 2013 EF4 that almost hit me- we were even thinking about moving to Washington because it was a nice Peoria suburb before that...

 

[Anti-Freeze]

@Central Ohio Wx

Oof. Hope he gets lots of Excedrin, coffee, and finds his other shoe before the chase.

#HairOfTheBlog

 

[SmokeEater]

Trey and others talking about how the warm front has pushed more south taking Chicago completely out of the tornado risk. Also bowing to the south across NE IL which may be detrimental to long track tornadoes as they track across the WF onto the cool side.

 

[SmokeEater]

Trey and others talking about how the warm front has pushed more south taking Chicago completely out of the tornado risk. Also bowing to the south across NE IL which may be detrimental to long track tornadoes as they track across the WF onto the cool side.

Anddd it was already posted, my bad guys, lol.

 

[Muwx]

Itll be interesting to see if the SPC makes any changes in their next update, I doubt we see them remove the moderate risk because they are typically pretty hesitant to walk a forecast back, but that lake breeze surge has changed the forecast in a not insignificant manner.

 

[Kds86z]

I guess disagreement is the consensus lol

 

[tornado examiner]

So The spread of the tornado threat is still shrinking fast?

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Tanner]

That could intrusion will be the determining factor of this event reaching its ceiling. I could see the justification in moving the highest probabilities, or shrinking them from the northern extent. Warm air has a much harder time overcoming cold air due to the difference in air density. You really need winds north of the warm front (cold side) to be southerly to allow warm air for advect northward as cold air retreats. Or a strong low level jet to allow warm air to advect slantwise over the front, which might not be timed well in conjunction with mature supercells.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

High risk of chaser convergance today

 

[US_Highway15]

High risk of chaser convergance today

View attachment 51341

Someone is going to get seriously hurt today and it's not going to be because of the storms.

 

[speedbump305]

High risk of chaser convergance today

View attachment 51341

That’s actually insane. It straight up looks like a fish finder app.

 

[Kds86z]

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE TO
POSSIBLY GIANT HAIL INITIALLY (UP TO 3-4 INCHES IN DIAMETER). THE
THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH ANY
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS, AND A STRONG TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE. AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70-80 MPH SHOULD
ALSO OCCUR AS THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
BOWING CLUSTERS.

 

[genie]

So The spread of the tornado threat is still shrinking fast?

If the warm front keeps pushing south and stays kinked, I would say that the threat of long tracked tornadoes is decreasing in the moderate area. Still a very favorable environment, just more potential flies in the ointment with northern extent.

 

[tigerman29]

It looks like storm initiation might be getting started with the first radar blip east of Peru, Il. Unsure if it south of the warm front or not.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Tennie]

If the warm front keeps pushing south and stays kinked, I would say that the threat of long tracked tornadoes is decreasing in the moderate area. Still a very favorable environment, just more potential flies in the ointment.

I suspect that the southern movement of the warm front is being aided at least in part by the cloud cover keeping warm air advection in check.