Kds86z
Member
Pds watch? I’m confident so . It matches the moderate tornado risk.
-
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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Wouldn't be surprised if they do outline one.
Also, what time are storms supposed to fire? The outlook discussion is a little ambiguous.
Kds86z
Member
speedbump305
Member
I knew it was a matter of time before Reed started using the V word lol.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Time to worry when he starts mentioning dynamic piping
This certainly has potential for a long and busy day. However, I believe another important question should be asked:
What are the potential failure modes that we could experience with today’s setup? I think it would be useful to know so that we can understand not only the setup’s potential ceiling, but also the potential floor as well, and thus try to keep our expectations realistically grounded instead of buying too much into hype.
What are the potential failure modes that we could experience with today’s setup? I think it would be useful to know so that we can understand not only the setup’s potential ceiling, but also the potential floor as well, and thus try to keep our expectations realistically grounded instead of buying too much into hype.
- Thread starter
- #470
CheeselandSkies
Member
Haha, yes, thanks. Finishing up the last tasks of my shift and will be leaving in about a half hour.
Looking like those early HRRR storms are back, but I think they're a red herring (and if they do occur at the timeframe depicted, they'll be on the Indiana border by the time I can get to La Salle. Will have to hold out for Round 2, probably in the Galesburg-Peoria vicinity.
speedbump305
Member
Stay safe out there! Keep us updated and hope the chase goes well and safely!
16z hrrr
Yeah these runs are wicked. Honestly not shocking they upgraded to have our first moderate of the year.
speedbump305
Member
Been a while since i’ve seen HRRR runs that wicked to be honest. Since the ferocious March and April outbreaks last year.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Your face looks very red @Grand Poo Bah everything good?
Not sure why angry emojis to posts of mine.
Kds86z
Member
Latest day 2:
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SEVERE WIND, AND PERHAPS TORNADO, POTENTIAL MAY
EMERGE ACROSS OH INTO PARTS OF WV AND WESTERN PA WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN A SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL 40-50 KNOT FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER OVERSPREADING THE UPPER OH VALLEY. WITHIN THIS
STRONG FLOW FIELD, GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS A PRONOUNCED PLUME OF
HIGHER THETA-E VALUES ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS. THE INTERSECTION OF THE STRONG FLOW WITH SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
REGIONALLY HIGHER BUOYANCY AND ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH (ON THE ORDER
OF 200-300 M2/S2) FAVORABLE FOR WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.
..LOWER MS VALLEY
ONE OR MORE BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE GREATER TEXARKANA REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME MODULATION IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS, CONTINUED LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING WILL PROMOTE A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PROMOTE ALONG-BOUNDARY STORM MOTIONS
AND MAINTAIN A LINEAR STORM MODE THROUGH THE DAY. AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST, ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
GUSTS AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE,
PRE-LINE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS
AS HEATING AND MODEST ASCENT ERODES WEAK CAPPING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. KINEMATIC PROFILES - CHARACTERIZED BY 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AND 100-150 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH - WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, THOUGH COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF SUPERCELLS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN DISPARITY BETWEEN 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS AND
MODEST SIGNALS IN CALIBRATED GUIDANCE.
..MOORE.. 03/10/2026
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SEVERE WIND, AND PERHAPS TORNADO, POTENTIAL MAY
EMERGE ACROSS OH INTO PARTS OF WV AND WESTERN PA WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN A SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL 40-50 KNOT FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER OVERSPREADING THE UPPER OH VALLEY. WITHIN THIS
STRONG FLOW FIELD, GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS A PRONOUNCED PLUME OF
HIGHER THETA-E VALUES ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS. THE INTERSECTION OF THE STRONG FLOW WITH SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
REGIONALLY HIGHER BUOYANCY AND ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH (ON THE ORDER
OF 200-300 M2/S2) FAVORABLE FOR WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.
..LOWER MS VALLEY
ONE OR MORE BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE GREATER TEXARKANA REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME MODULATION IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS, CONTINUED LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING WILL PROMOTE A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PROMOTE ALONG-BOUNDARY STORM MOTIONS
AND MAINTAIN A LINEAR STORM MODE THROUGH THE DAY. AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST, ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
GUSTS AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE,
PRE-LINE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS
AS HEATING AND MODEST ASCENT ERODES WEAK CAPPING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. KINEMATIC PROFILES - CHARACTERIZED BY 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AND 100-150 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH - WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, THOUGH COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF SUPERCELLS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN DISPARITY BETWEEN 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS AND
MODEST SIGNALS IN CALIBRATED GUIDANCE.
..MOORE.. 03/10/2026
Maybe a special high risk corridor is needed? 99% sure it doesn't happen but models are fairly confident on a higher potential corridor within the current moderate residing in northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.
Muwx
Member
Pretty much zero chance we see an upgrade go high imo
Central Ohio Wx
Member
The Columbus metro is now in the 5#.