Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

[SmokeEater]

Moderate risk coming, tornado driven.

 

[N0mz]

We need some clouds potentially. Gotta watch spreads.

HRRR looks very overmixed (as usual). Initializing with like 12 degree spreads while reality is like 6-8

 

[Ozonelayer]

Moderate risk coming, tornado driven.

Is it confirmed?

 

[US_Highway15]

Moderate risk coming, tornado driven.

Dang, stuff's about to hit the fan.

 

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL TO NORTHWEST IN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 101616Z - 101645Z

SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO-DRIVEN MODERATE RISK WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THE MIDDAY DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

 

[US_Highway15]

Is it confirmed?

Yes

 

[Muwx]

Is it confirmed?

Smoke eater has been plugged in historically. I’d assume this is legit.

 

[SmokeEater]

Is it confirmed?

Yes, meso is out.

 

[slenker]

Yea, not over Chicago, lol. Chicago is more like the 2% or 5%. Don't get me wrong, not 100 miles, but def not over the city.

Yeah, that lake front will mess with the tornado chances up there. I think any storms too close to the lake will transition to being elevated very rapidly.

 

[US_Highway15]

Not going to lie, when I saw this, i thought it was gonna be for a high risk lol My heart sank for a second.

 

[Kds86z]

Trey mentioned gotta watch the wind coming down to the warm front.

Yeah, that lake front will mess with the tornado chances up there. I think any storms too close to the lake will transition to being elevated very rapidly.

 

[Maxis_s]

Now that we have cloud cover is eliminating any reasonable chance of overmixing, I think the only questions are the extent and timing of OWS development, the storm mode when storms begin to latch onto the warm front (more specifically, how long they stay discrete/semi-discrete) and how the storms will interact with the warm front boundary, which as Trey mentioned, may be problematic for storms because of how tight the temperature gradient is along the warm front

 

[Ozonelayer]

View attachment 51317
Yes

Smoke eater has been plugged in historically. I’d assume this is legit.

Yes, meso is out.

Alright then.

Definetly will be watching this closely. I'm confident in saying conditions are ripe for a rather localized tornado outbreak.

 

[SmokeEater]

Smoke eater has been plugged in historically. I’d assume this is legit.

Not as plugged in as I used to be, lost my access to NWS Chat and don't know why. No reason was given either, and I didn't do anything to warrant it. Working on getting it back being both a FF and work for NJDOT. But thanks for the good word, I appreciate it. I take that stuff seriously, don't ever want to put false info out there.

 

[Kds86z]

Not as plugged in as I used to be, lost my access to NWS Chat and don't know why. No reason was given either, and I didn't do anything to warrant it. Working on getting it back being both a FF and work for NJDOT. But thanks for the good word, I appreciate it. I take that stuff seriously, don't ever want to put false info out there.

Affirmative. smokeEater never posts no false haha.

 

[TornadoFan]

First moderate risk of 2026?

 

[bckhd2]

The warm front boundary is so sharp but I think any storm that really is able to hook on and get going has a chance to produce big time given the parameters in place

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

First moderate risk of 2026?

Yes. First CIG2 for both tornadoes and hail as well.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Absolutely the right call to upgrade. Obs are pretty much in line with models and the clearing of the OWS is ongoing

 

[US_Highway15]

Now that we have cloud cover is eliminating any reasonable chance of overmixing, I think the only questions are the extent and timing of OWS development, the storm mode when storms begin to latch onto the warm front (more specifically, how long they stay discrete/semi-discrete) and how the storms will interact with the warm front boundary, which as Trey mentioned, may be problematic for storms because of how tight the temperature gradient is along the warm front

Not to be that guy, but I'm looking forward to seeing this new outlook. More times than not, when we have this complex of a setup around Lake Michigan, the failure modes have won instead of verifying.