Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

[Beachwalker]

These OK storms have slowly absorbed mergers and splits, and have become more organized, are larger, and now have some spacing between them.

 

[speedbump305]

Was just about to post this. It’s early spring and everyone’s grass is dead/brown, and that area looks like it was muddy to begin with based on the right side of the left image, but I can’t help but think that looks like some scouring. I can’t tell how much is from the tornado itself though.

Edit: The more I look at this the more I think this is legit grass scouring. The grass in the right pic is green. This may have been a high end event. Holy ****

My god. We genuinely may have a violent tornado on our hands here. That scouring is quite intense.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Couplet looks a little weaker for the time being but I don't really see anything to impede that lead tornadic cell in OK for the near term. Not much cluttering up the inflow region and plenty of potential nudgers on the rear flank.

 

[Muwx]

May wrap back up as it heads into Tulsa. Not ideal.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

This is pure Hopium, but the HRRR shows it lifting before Tulsa so fingers crossed it's right!!

 

[TyphoonFreida]

There’s been several F3 and even some F4 in Michigan but no F4s in over 25 years I believe.

I want to say that the most recent one to date was 3/20/1976? Which would also probably be the earliest EF3+ tornado there on record.

EDIT: I double checked and the most recent violent tornado was actually 4/2/1977 in Augusta, MI.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[speedbump305]

I’d keep a very close eye on the cell nearing Tulsa. It could very well ramp back up.

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like another area of rotation is coming together back near Stroud.

 

[TH2002]

I'm saddened, but hardly surprised that what will likely be end up being the 'tornado of the day' occurred in Michigan despite the SPC calling for the main severe threat to unfold elsewhere.

I saw this with the Gaylord tornado back in 2022, only the Union City event seems to have been quite a bit more intense.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This is pure Hopium, but the HRRR shows it lifting before Tulsa so fingers crossed it's right!!

HRRR (or any other model) isn't anywhere close to being able to accurately predict the location of tornadogenesis and dissipation.

 

[Tanner]

Tulsa seems to be confused about how to structure itself. A lot of precipitation is falling around the storm and obscuring the inflow somewhat. It looks like it might be about to figure itself out, though.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Ryan hall still missing. Watching max

He's been back for awhile

 

[Muwx]

Ryan hall still missing. Watching max

He’s back up, has been for a while

 

[TornadoFan]

Shawnee storm is starting to look pretty decent.

 

[buckeye05]

Rotation is ramping up again on the Tulsa storm

 

[Tennie]

Ryan hall still missing. Watching max

Here's his current stream:

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

HRRR (or any other model) isn't anywhere close to being able to accurately predict the location of tornadogenesis and dissipation.

I know. That's why it's hopium.. Really hoping the storm falls apart before Tulsa.

Ryan hall still missing. Watching max

He's been back for 30 minutes

 

[andyhb]

Devastating damage here, good shot at an EF4 from Union City.