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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

Yep, last year's 3/14 and 3/15 very much comes to mind on opposite ends of the CAM-ification spectrum. Generally I like to think of them as very useful to get an idea of what things might look like, but basically advise never using them as anything remotely approaching gospel until within that 18-24 hour range.

Even when depicted on CAMs, prefrontal cells seem to occur fairly rarely in setups like this, and when they do occur, they often tend to just bop around at sub-severe levels until they get eaten by the QLCS. Definitely possible, but I feel like the wording of some WFOs and forecasters that strong tornado potential in the eastern MS into AL/GA region hinges on prefrontals is perhaps a bit misleading - I think there is very much significant tornado potential across the area, but I find it far more likely to come from the QLCS itself than from discrete cells. Not completely discounting the possibility either, I think it could still happen, but it isn't my primary concern. The belief that QLCS tornadoes can't be strong is a weirdly-persistent belief that seems to bias even people who know better, so a lack of discrete convection doesn't make me any less watchful.
I think it's generally not to be too trigger happy with the wording. Any strong shear combination with a QLCS can realistically produce a significant tornado but you're not gonna have a high, high verification rate. With the intense rfd surges, j could certainly see siggies from the QLCS
 
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18Z HRRR has a ton of updraft swaths coming right through the Atlanta metro starting around 6am. Obviously taking with a grain of salt, but still don't love the idea that there could be several tornado capable storms / QLCS in the area right at rush hour. I hope the news networks are looking carefully at this threat, I worry that it's going to take a lot of people by complete surprise.
 
I think it's generally not to be too trigger happy with the wording. Any strong shear combination with a QLCS can realistically produce a significant tornado but you're not gonna have a high, high verification rate. With the intense rfd surges, j could certainly see siggies from the QLCS
Siggies... DEFINITELY going to start using that from now on lol
 
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18Z HRRR has a ton of updraft swaths coming right through the Atlanta metro starting around 6am. Obviously taking with a grain of salt, but still don't love the idea that there could be several tornado capable storms / QLCS in the area right at rush hour. I hope the news networks are looking carefully at this threat, I worry that it's going to take a lot of people by complete surprise.
Reminds me of the Gainesville, Georgia F4 that hit 90 years ago this year at the start of the work day that hit that factory.
 
Note that models were suggesting a more progressive cold front. That's slowing down now again and trending dangerous again on multiple models. So of course, Monday needs careful watching.

More time/space for prefrontal shenanigans? I noticed an earlier run of the RRFS had quite a few prefrontals (naturally) with UH swaths after 18Z Monday, but most of them were offshore.
 
More time/space for prefrontal shenanigans? I noticed an earlier run of the RRFS had quite a few prefrontals (naturally) with UH swaths after 18Z Monday, but most of them were offshore.
Yes. Even the potential for the QLCS to break down into semi discrete supercells exists. Dangerous scenario with intense tornadoes possible from the Carolinas up to Maryland even perhaps taking 18z NAM verbatim
 
Something that I want to mention is that, for my area at least (middle Tennessee), the forecast suggested that after the storms come through Sunday night, the temperatures could cool into the 30s and potentially even create a chance for snowfall in the vicinity. In addition, low temperatures will also be plunging into the 10s to lower 20s on Monday night, with highs struggling to climb into the 40s/50s into Wednesday.

All in all, it seems like tomorrow and Monday are shaping up to be a rather “interesting” two-day sequence. Let’s pray that it won’t be in the “Chinese curse” sense of the word.
 
My method has breached 110-120 on some soundings from the NAM on this day.

120 and above is usually intense tornado potential.... That's why I'm sounding this day out a lot. I just feel like people are not paying attention enough to it. There is very dangerous potential if things align for it
The hodographs are some of the best I've seen in a minute. Pretty much perfect for long track tornadoes; very reminiscent of the "forever-meso" hodograph of the Mayfield tornado:
 
The hodographs are some of the best I've seen in a minute. Pretty much perfect for long track tornadoes; very reminiscent of the "forever-meso" hodograph of the Mayfield tornado:

Funny enough that I just contacted Cameron to discuss about intense mesoscale tornado environments haha

That VWP is absolutely upper echelon. Extreme low level shear with intense ventilation all in one with a supercell with large, expansive warm sector and multiple reinforcing nudgers to continue tornadogenesis. We might not be done the decade but I'd be surprised if another supercell could pass the historicalness of Mayfield.
 
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