Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[Kds86z]

I thought we’d end up around average for March tornado numbers, but that was before this weekend system came into play, we’re at 85 (and 2-3 haven’t been surveyed yet in Texas).

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

This would likely mitigate the threat as the front would move through before there's a better chance for moisture advection after dark.

What's your continued thoughts on Monday and is there any particular analogs this event rings a bell to for you? Some of the stuff you've put out so far on this threat has definitely made me concerned.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Obviously yes they are potent analogs but they are just potent analogs and not necessarily going to play out the same exact way with those analogs

 

[StormStalker]

Before this event gets going I want to remind everyone to please give credit to the person(s) images you are sharing. If it's a screenshot or a tweet, just make sure the source of the image is there. Most tweets have the source on them but the screenshots don't. We want to see the pictures and videos but we also want to make sure proper credit is given to the photographer/videographer.

 

[KevinH]

Genuine question what is it about Georgia that makes storms collapse as soon as they cross the state line? I assume it's because we don't have direct access to the moisture advecting from the Gulf, but it happens so consistently and in all seasons that it makes me wonder if there's something more at play. I have no interest in tornadoes to be sure, but occasionally it would be nice to get something more exciting than another 2:45am severe warning that immediately dissolves into a Special Weather Statement as soon as it crosses I-285 outside the Metro.

PLEASE be careful what you ask for LOL….

 

[KevinH]

The 18z nam is a big uptick in parameters in Alabama and Georgia

Would you mind posting what you are seeing? Some of us are VISUAL lol

 

[Kds86z]

 

[bckhd2]

PLEASE be careful what you ask for LOL….

LOL yeah about as soon as I posted that the NAM started uptrending

 

[Sharpy]

Obviously yes they are potent analogs but they are just potent analogs and not necessarily going to play out the same exact way with those analogs

Thanks for mentioning this. Some people get too caught up in the analogs - comparisons are helpful, but not an ends-all be-all situation.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[N0mz]

Thanks for mentioning this. Some people get too caught up in the analogs - comparisons are helpful, but not an ends-all be-all situation.

Especially because severe weather is so much more mesoscale dependent than, say winter weather, I feel like analogs have much less value. Like say if the analogs were pointing to an environment like Enderlin day, it would actually cause me to think significant tornadoes were less likely.

 

[TheSuckZone]

High risk every day in May incoming

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Thought I would peak at the 18z hrrr at the end of the run. Seems like the 21z rap and 18z hrrr are moving a bit faster than the nam and globals.

 

[Kds86z]

Thought I would peak at the 18z hrrr at the end of the run. Seems like the 21z rap and 18z hrrr are moving a bit faster than the nam and globals.

Event canceled? Jk

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Event canceled? Jk

Nah,if it where to move faster though it would be in question how much cape could build into Alabama.

 

[Kds86z]

Thought I would peak at the 18z hrrr at the end of the run. Seems like the 21z rap and 18z hrrr are moving a bit faster than the nam and globals.

Which model been doing the best this month with the previous systems?

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Thought I would peak at the 18z hrrr at the end of the run. Seems like the 21z rap and 18z hrrr are moving a bit faster than the nam and globals.

18z hasn't got into main range for 00z yet. Still has a silky line developing but it's not mature and has no instability

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Which model been doing the best this month with the previous systems?

Not sure, I mean we are looking at the long range portion of the RAP and HRRR so it could be a little bit off its gourd.

 

[Clancy]

Worth noting that HRRR at longer range is fairly prone to being off until it gets within that 18 hour time frame or so. Not saying to trust the NAM any more than it obviously, just throwing it out there.

Edit: at the same time, models in general underestimate how fast convection moves, so that's food for thought as well.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

No matter what, i still don't trust the RRFS on any event. It's just a model that gets excessively used for overhype anytime it sprays UH tracks due to a upcoming event. Admittedly it can model environments pretty well but it still has issues with convection as a whole.