You think this has potential for high risk in the Atlantic?
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Oh boy. All I'm saying is confluence bands are easily possible to get established across the WS on Monday. That is a wide warm sector and dangerous parameter space. I'm thinking that parameter space is even more impressive then 2/24/16 and there's one particular event from 15 years ago I could mention but there are major differences with storm mode here. I do not like how we are trending
Just in case people get confused, i am not referencing THAT event but one that took place 11 days before and was completely overshadowed as a whole due to the historic event that took place after. But I can't think of such a high end environment that this area has seen ever since that day and that's the best match I have.
Just in case people get confused, i am not referencing THAT event but one that took place 11 days before and was completely overshadowed as a whole due to the historic event that took place after. But I can't think of such a high end environment that this area has seen ever since that day and that's the best match I have.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I'm not seeing that at all nor want to discuss that. The setup on paper may look capable of a high end event, there is however things that can make or break discrete development ahead of the line. But right now, I would be taking this event seriously
jiharris0220
Member
It’s not often at all where you have a 70+knot LLJ combined with high thermos (1000-2000+CAPE, 60-70temps/dews), with the NAM perhaps even showing some hints of pre-frontal convection.
jiharris0220
Member
Here’s what the RGEM shows FWIW regarding storm mode for Sunday and Monday.
You can really see the difference between what it and the NAM shows, which is large upscale/QLCS for Sunday vs a somewhat semi discrete line and plenty of pre-frontal convection on Monday.
You can really see the difference between what it and the NAM shows, which is large upscale/QLCS for Sunday vs a somewhat semi discrete line and plenty of pre-frontal convection on Monday.
I know focus for significant tornado potential is likely going to be on the Mid-Atlantic, but I'd just like to take a moment to appreciate the forecasted environment at 7 AM CDT in Alabama. Sounding is from west of LaGrange, GA across the Alabama state line. Taken at its face, this is a pretty concerning situation, and it could be a serious overnight event in parts of Mississippi and Alabama. I really think Alabama and Georgia should be paying close attention to this setup.
Ozonelayer
Member
"Hello? Yes I'd like a side of QLCS with my supercells." -North Carolina and Virginia
RFD66
Member
RFD66
Member
Interesting. Tupelo, MS. at midnight
N0mz
Member
We could be looking at practically nonstop severe weather from Saturday 21z to Tuesday 00z
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Could also see some big time snow from this too behind this according to local news
KakashiHatake2000
Member
I’ll say snow starts in central Mississippi curves it’s way through north and west Alabama up through Tennessee Kentucky Indiana and Ohio probably western portions getting snow too
N0mz
Member
I think we could see a 15 cig # for Dixie Saturday night/Monday morning.
DanLarsen34
Member
Soundings like this is why I asked the 4/16/2011 question. This modeled environment isn’t far off that day. If people remember, we had a QLCS with that event that morphed into a semi-discrete mode as it encountered the more favorable environment across the Carolinas.
RFD66
Member
N0mz
Member
Given that SPC outlooks flip over at 06z, we could probably see Dixie outlined in the Sunday and Saturday outlooks. I also agree, Carolina Monday looks big time as modeled on the NAM now, but I'm gonna wait till probably Saturday to look at it more closely.
warneagle
Member
the fact that an event like the 14-16 April 2011 outbreak has basically gotten memory-holed is another testament to how crazy the 25-28 April event was. in most years, that's your headline event for the entire season, but in 2011 it had been completely overshadowed within a couple of weeks.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Matthew cappucci is saying it reminds him of feb 2016
It’s not often as a central Virginia resident that I have to watch this kind of thing in my own region. I’m in the same area as @Brice W so I’ll be watching and waiting.
12z NAM was an outbreak of severe storms across the SE and Mid Atlantic states Sunday night through Monday. Alarmingly large area of favorable parameter space.