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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

JPWX said:
My high for Sunday is 80 and drop to 43 Monday. A 37 degree change. Yeah and I'm expecting that Enhanced Risk to be expanded as well both south and east. Also, this is the first ever Day 4 30% risk for Richmond, VA and surrounding area as well as the first one in March.
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we're going from 68 on Monday to 37 on Tuesday. we actually had a more extreme 24-hour drop Wednesday into yesterday (close to 50 degrees, from the mid-80s into the mid-30s).
 
warneagle said:
we're going from 68 on Monday to 37 on Tuesday. we actually had a more extreme 24-hour drop Wednesday into yesterday (close to 50 degrees, from the mid-80s into the mid-30s).
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Yep. One of my friends brought that up. Did you have any snow Wednesday with that front?
 
warneagle said:
we're going from 68 on Monday to 37 on Tuesday. we actually had a more extreme 24-hour drop Wednesday into yesterday (close to 50 degrees, from the mid-80s into the mid-30s).
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Yep. Not to mention we got a very heavy wet snow that actually accumulated about 2 inches everywhere except the roads given the few warm days we had before.
 
Ozonelayer said:
The NAM (Abliet at the end of its run) really doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Piedmont reigon on Monday.

View attachment 51702
(Taken in West Central North Carolina)

Kinematics wise, this is rather incredible for this portion of the country. Backing from the SSE, sickle shaped hodograph, and rather impressive speed shear in the low levels. Of course it is the NAM so take the instability with some salt, given the cold bias.

The SPC also has a D4 30% for the area, mainly from North Carolina into Virginia. The already mention tornadoes as well.

"Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday.
First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA."

I honestly think the also might expand the 30% south through SC, and maybe slightly more west as well given the size of the WS.

View attachment 51703
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Just out of curiosity since I haven’t looked at the analogs for this event: does 4/16/2011 happen to be popping up for Monday?
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Local Mets Jackson Memphis area seem think pretty sure we get least under a moderate risk eventually
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I think a impressive QLCS with embedded tornado is a given at this point but the magnitude of the tornado threat is still uncertain, I don't think we will see clarity on that until about two days out. The environment is RIPE if we can get substantial OWS convection or prefrontals.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Honestly Im more worried about the mid Atlantic on Monday than Dixie on Sunday at this point.
View attachment 51710View attachment 51711
Here’s another brutal sounding a little further north.
View attachment 51714
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I agree. At this point, the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas is setting up for a significant tornado event, one perhaps not seen since 2/24/16. Dixie on Sunday conditionally remains potential for significant damaging winds and several tornadoes.


Prefrontal convection is unusual given that robust instability isn't in place. You need enough instability with no hostile factors to get WAA convection firing and then you mature and go from there for Sunday. I personally believe more in a QLCS here. Even if the mode remains QLCS here on Monday, that is a profile still capable of intense tornadoes from the QLCS alone. This may be a very notable event.
 
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