KakashiHatake2000
Member
I guess we will be up to see it then see you in a little over 12 hours nah I’m jk
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,863
- Reaction score
- 4,242
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
Wish rich Thompson would write sundays threat. Miss reading his thoughts
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,863
- Reaction score
- 4,242
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
Large 30 percent risk already for day 3 … and possibility even larger one on way later outlooks. Possible upgrade will be likely
30 % for day 4 on the East Coast as well. For day 3 the spc notes that the greatest threat area will likely shift as predictability increases
for
for
Last edited:
Had to add in this cips pic. Top 15 analogs with 5 is very high for Miss and Alabama. Some impressive numbers for 5 storm reports
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,863
- Reaction score
- 4,242
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
Yeah that 30 percent will expand probably next update later afternoon
I think we are underplaying the potential for OWS supercells / prefrontals with this event currently.
bckhd2
Member
I really liked FFC's 2am discussion this morning. I was wondering why AL/GA hasn't been upgraded in the SPC outlooks yet given that it looks to me like the threat has increased in those areas. I thought FFC gave a nice concise overview of the situation and did mention that we could see potential expansion of the outlooks east to the AL/GA line. I'll be interested to see what the SPC does in the next couple days. In any event, crazy how fast this system has uptrended!
After several dry and mild days post-front, the extended range opens
on Sunday morning to moisture rebounding ahead of our next chance
for more widespread (and organized) showers and thunderstorms.
Dewpoints will surge into the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday
afternoon and evening, supporting the development of isolated to
scattered afternoon convection within the warm sector --
encompassing much of north and central Georgia. Concurrently, and
more notably, a strong trough at the mid-levels deepens and procures
a weakly negative tilt across the Plains, with a broad and robust
cold front in tow at the surface. Global model guidance progs the
aforementioned front sweeping across the state sometime between
Sunday evening and early Monday afternoon, almost certainly
accompanied by a quasi-organized line of thunderstorms. What remains
to be seen is the chances for segments along the line to become
strong to severe. A Day 4 15% (equivalent to a Slight) Risk has been
analyzed by the SPC off to our west, and a Day 5 15% (Slight) Risk
is situated off to our east, which sets the stage for potential
inclusion in subsequent Convective Outlooks for late Sunday/early
Monday. The NAM analyzes a narrow corridor of bolstered surface-
based instability (primarily along the AL/GA state line) overlapping
with the core of the jet swinging through aloft beginning around
daybreak Monday. Will be keeping a cautious eye on this as it enters
the purview of Hires guidance/CAMS.
After several dry and mild days post-front, the extended range opens
on Sunday morning to moisture rebounding ahead of our next chance
for more widespread (and organized) showers and thunderstorms.
Dewpoints will surge into the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday
afternoon and evening, supporting the development of isolated to
scattered afternoon convection within the warm sector --
encompassing much of north and central Georgia. Concurrently, and
more notably, a strong trough at the mid-levels deepens and procures
a weakly negative tilt across the Plains, with a broad and robust
cold front in tow at the surface. Global model guidance progs the
aforementioned front sweeping across the state sometime between
Sunday evening and early Monday afternoon, almost certainly
accompanied by a quasi-organized line of thunderstorms. What remains
to be seen is the chances for segments along the line to become
strong to severe. A Day 4 15% (equivalent to a Slight) Risk has been
analyzed by the SPC off to our west, and a Day 5 15% (Slight) Risk
is situated off to our east, which sets the stage for potential
inclusion in subsequent Convective Outlooks for late Sunday/early
Monday. The NAM analyzes a narrow corridor of bolstered surface-
based instability (primarily along the AL/GA state line) overlapping
with the core of the jet swinging through aloft beginning around
daybreak Monday. Will be keeping a cautious eye on this as it enters
the purview of Hires guidance/CAMS.
Ozonelayer
Member
The NAM (Abliet at the end of its run) really doesn't paint a pretty picture for the Piedmont reigon on Monday.
(Taken in West Central North Carolina)
Kinematics wise, this is rather incredible for this portion of the country. Backing from the SSE, sickle shaped hodograph, and rather impressive speed shear in the low levels. Of course it is the NAM so take the instability with some salt, given the cold bias.
The SPC also has a D4 30% for the area, mainly from North Carolina into Virginia. The already mention tornadoes as well.
"Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday.
First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA."
I honestly think the also might expand the 30% south through SC, and maybe slightly more west as well given the size of the WS.
(Taken in West Central North Carolina)
Kinematics wise, this is rather incredible for this portion of the country. Backing from the SSE, sickle shaped hodograph, and rather impressive speed shear in the low levels. Of course it is the NAM so take the instability with some salt, given the cold bias.
The SPC also has a D4 30% for the area, mainly from North Carolina into Virginia. The already mention tornadoes as well.
"Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday.
First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA."
I honestly think the also might expand the 30% south through SC, and maybe slightly more west as well given the size of the WS.
When was the last time a 30% was issued on day 4?
And in that area... IN MARCH?
N0mz
Member
I'm in a d4 30%?? That's a new feeling.
0.0
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,863
- Reaction score
- 4,242
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
Mother of god ….
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,863
- Reaction score
- 4,242
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
I got high 78 Sunday. High Monday 39. Something going give. That’s just physics
warneagle
Member
yeah I don't think we've had one of those while I've lived here
WhirlingWx
Member
As my favorite professor would say, "that's a big honkin' trough!"
Last edited:
Talk about a bowling ball.
warneagle
Member
I'll be in the office, but I'll make sure to get footage if we get any #mallwedges.
then again, the last time we had a tornado watch they closed all the museums and sent everyone home. I appreciated the abundance of caution since I wouldn't want to have to herd hundreds of tourists into the basement, but it didn't even rain that day.
My high for Sunday is 80 and drop to 43 Monday. A 37 degree change. Yeah and I'm expecting that Enhanced Risk to be expanded as well both south and east. Also, this is the first ever Day 4 30% risk for Richmond, VA and surrounding area as well as the first one in March.