genie
Member
Where do you live, Hoth??? Good luck and stay safe!
-
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #123
CheeselandSkies
Member
(Moved, apparently I can't keep my own threads straight)
Could be another situation where the moisture is a bit too late for a big daytime tornado event but the LLJ is so strong you have some problems well after dark, either with the QLCS or some rogue prefrontal cells. Probably not something on the order of a year ago, but we've seen time and time again all it takes is one.
Can't overlook the potential in the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic on Monday, either. I tend to do so because truly high-end setups that far east are rare, but they do happen (4/16/11, 2/24/16).
Could be another situation where the moisture is a bit too late for a big daytime tornado event but the LLJ is so strong you have some problems well after dark, either with the QLCS or some rogue prefrontal cells. Probably not something on the order of a year ago, but we've seen time and time again all it takes is one.
Can't overlook the potential in the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic on Monday, either. I tend to do so because truly high-end setups that far east are rare, but they do happen (4/16/11, 2/24/16).
RFD66
Member
Impressive parameters maxed out over central Alabama on the 00z nam.
Also looks like the line becomes rather broken as it moves into central Alabama and East Alabama
Also looks like the line becomes rather broken as it moves into central Alabama and East Alabama
Sounding from central Alabama early Monday morning.
Kds86z
Member
And tomorrow it’ll be gone. Jk
Big severe weather threat. There's your sign
Grand Poo Bah
Member
WELP I guess this is what happens if we get 1500 CAPE in central Alabama.
- Thread starter
- #130
CheeselandSkies
Member
Gotta love that it's at 09Z (4 AM), too...not.
Dang given that shear profile you don’t need 3000 cape. Like you normally would
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Speed shear?
RFD66
Member
Look how cold those 500mb temps are.Strong Arctic airmass type temps should help induce instability and stretching of potential updrafts it would seem for sure.
Last edited:
Kds86z
Member
KakashiHatake2000
Member
484
FXUS64 KMEG 130449
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
- Dry weather will persist through at least Sunday morning. Cool
temperatures are expected through Friday, and warm, above normal
temperatures this weekend.
- Confidence is increasing in the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms Sunday night and into early Monday morning.
- A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40
Sunday night, and area wide Monday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Surface analysis currently shows surface high pressure centered
over the Mid-South with dry, cool conditions present. Similar
conditions will persist through the end of the week with high
pressure gradually shifting east with time. Southerlies will
gradually return in the meantime with warming temperatures. Highs
will reach back into the 70s Saturday and Sunday.
By Sunday, a powerful trough will eject from the northern Rockies
and into the Midwest, amplifying significantly in the meantime. A
similarly powerful low will develop with a cold front that will
swing through the region Sunday night and Monday morning.
Southerly flow will ramp up ahead of the front throughout the day
with sustained winds of upwards of 20 - 25 mph, especially within
the Mississippi River Delta. Moisture from the Gulf will stream
northward rapidly with 50 - 60 F dewpoints expected across the
area by late afternoon. By late evening, the cold front will
arrive with our next shot at showers and thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm potential, especially severe potential, has
increased through the last 48 hours. A significant slowing trend
has occurred amongst the majority of medium range guidance,
delaying the arrival of the cold front by several hours from
where it forecast a few days ago. In addition to this trend, the
trough has also trended towards a more amplified solution with
the base of the trough now in the Ozarks late Sunday instead of
the Midwest. Therefore, theta e advection will last longer and
better upper height falls will be in place, increasing the
available instability along the cold front as it traverses the
region. A highly-forced QLCS is then expected to quickly develop
through the evening and travel along the leading edge of the
front through the night. CSU and CIPS probs have already produced
a large area of severe weather potential, roughly following the
projected track of the QLCS. As such, SPC has already placed a
day 4 Slight (level 2/5) Risk for severe weather over the entire
region with further refinements expected tonight.
As stated above, confidence continues to rise in a strongly
forced QLCS to develop along the cold front with an attendant
severe wind and potential tornado threat. The tornado risk will
depend on the quality of moisture that is able to advect ahead of
the line, which up to this point has not been particularly high
and could lead to high LCLs. Even with that in mind, most model
guidance has sufficiently boundary-normal 0-3 km shear vectors
and some 0-3 km CAPE. These factors suggest that embedded
mesocyclones are possible within the QLCS that could produce
tornadoes if enough moisture is present. Prefrontal storms appear
unlikely given the low quality moisture and large MLCIN. WIth
respect to the wind potential, the QLCS will likely be
dynamically coupled with the upper trough and capable of mixing
down severe wind gusts. Therefore, both severe winds and a
conditional QLCS tornado threat are currently expected for much
of the area Sunday night and into Monday morning.
By the middle of Monday morning, the front is expected to have
cleared the region as the upper system quickly shifts to our
north and east with dry weather expected through the end of the
week. A strong, 1035 mb surface high will then slide into the
CONUS behind in the system, bringing a punch of cold air. Lows
Monday morning are expected to drop into the low 30s with lows on
Tuesday in the 20s and low 30s. A warming trend will then lift
the region towards milder weather as southerlies return to the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
VFR will prevail through the next 30 hours, with only occasional
cirrus. Wind will remain the primary impact. The low level
pressure gradient will increase overnight, with southwesterly
winds just off the deck the first to respond. Gridded NBM
guidance indicates a 20-30 degree veering with height, so the 06Z
TAFs will include a short LLWS group for MEM, JBR and MKL.
No such issues expected for Friday evening, as the low level
pressure gradient and surface wind gust potential weakens by late
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% this
afternoon and between 40-50% Saturday. Fuel moisture remains high
from Wednesday's rainfall which will mitigate any fire weather
concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday
night.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
FXUS64 KMEG 130449
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
- Dry weather will persist through at least Sunday morning. Cool
temperatures are expected through Friday, and warm, above normal
temperatures this weekend.
- Confidence is increasing in the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms Sunday night and into early Monday morning.
- A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40
Sunday night, and area wide Monday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Surface analysis currently shows surface high pressure centered
over the Mid-South with dry, cool conditions present. Similar
conditions will persist through the end of the week with high
pressure gradually shifting east with time. Southerlies will
gradually return in the meantime with warming temperatures. Highs
will reach back into the 70s Saturday and Sunday.
By Sunday, a powerful trough will eject from the northern Rockies
and into the Midwest, amplifying significantly in the meantime. A
similarly powerful low will develop with a cold front that will
swing through the region Sunday night and Monday morning.
Southerly flow will ramp up ahead of the front throughout the day
with sustained winds of upwards of 20 - 25 mph, especially within
the Mississippi River Delta. Moisture from the Gulf will stream
northward rapidly with 50 - 60 F dewpoints expected across the
area by late afternoon. By late evening, the cold front will
arrive with our next shot at showers and thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm potential, especially severe potential, has
increased through the last 48 hours. A significant slowing trend
has occurred amongst the majority of medium range guidance,
delaying the arrival of the cold front by several hours from
where it forecast a few days ago. In addition to this trend, the
trough has also trended towards a more amplified solution with
the base of the trough now in the Ozarks late Sunday instead of
the Midwest. Therefore, theta e advection will last longer and
better upper height falls will be in place, increasing the
available instability along the cold front as it traverses the
region. A highly-forced QLCS is then expected to quickly develop
through the evening and travel along the leading edge of the
front through the night. CSU and CIPS probs have already produced
a large area of severe weather potential, roughly following the
projected track of the QLCS. As such, SPC has already placed a
day 4 Slight (level 2/5) Risk for severe weather over the entire
region with further refinements expected tonight.
As stated above, confidence continues to rise in a strongly
forced QLCS to develop along the cold front with an attendant
severe wind and potential tornado threat. The tornado risk will
depend on the quality of moisture that is able to advect ahead of
the line, which up to this point has not been particularly high
and could lead to high LCLs. Even with that in mind, most model
guidance has sufficiently boundary-normal 0-3 km shear vectors
and some 0-3 km CAPE. These factors suggest that embedded
mesocyclones are possible within the QLCS that could produce
tornadoes if enough moisture is present. Prefrontal storms appear
unlikely given the low quality moisture and large MLCIN. WIth
respect to the wind potential, the QLCS will likely be
dynamically coupled with the upper trough and capable of mixing
down severe wind gusts. Therefore, both severe winds and a
conditional QLCS tornado threat are currently expected for much
of the area Sunday night and into Monday morning.
By the middle of Monday morning, the front is expected to have
cleared the region as the upper system quickly shifts to our
north and east with dry weather expected through the end of the
week. A strong, 1035 mb surface high will then slide into the
CONUS behind in the system, bringing a punch of cold air. Lows
Monday morning are expected to drop into the low 30s with lows on
Tuesday in the 20s and low 30s. A warming trend will then lift
the region towards milder weather as southerlies return to the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
VFR will prevail through the next 30 hours, with only occasional
cirrus. Wind will remain the primary impact. The low level
pressure gradient will increase overnight, with southwesterly
winds just off the deck the first to respond. Gridded NBM
guidance indicates a 20-30 degree veering with height, so the 06Z
TAFs will include a short LLWS group for MEM, JBR and MKL.
No such issues expected for Friday evening, as the low level
pressure gradient and surface wind gust potential weakens by late
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% this
afternoon and between 40-50% Saturday. Fuel moisture remains high
from Wednesday's rainfall which will mitigate any fire weather
concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday
night.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
KakashiHatake2000
Member
702
FXUS64 KHUN 130442
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
- A strong cold front will bring a high chance of thunderstorms
from late Sunday night-early Monday morning. Severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few
tornadoes appear likely with this event.
- A few snow flurries may occur late Monday morning, with a hard
freeze likely Monday night/Tuesday morning (lows in the lower-
mid 20s).
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the
central/eastern CONUS throughout the near term period, with dry
northwest flow aloft expected to slowly back to the west and
diminish on Friday. In the low-levels, our region remains under
the influence of a narrow surface ridge (extending from the Lower
Rio Grande Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states) this evening, with
mostly clear skies and calm winds supporting efficient
radiational cooling. Although temperatures have already fallen
into the m30s-l40s, a minor increase in southerly flow is
anticipated prior to sunrise as a deepening surface low (related
to a northern stream trough) shifts east-southeastward from the
Red River Valley of the Dakotas/MN into the western Great Lakes.
This, along with an increasing coverage of high clouds in NW flow
aloft, makes the spatial coverage of frost highly uncertain. But,
areas of frost appear likely to develop by sunrise (particularly
in wind- sheltered locations) as temps fall another couple of
degrees.
Shortly after sunrise, low-level flow will veer to SW and
strengthen as the occluding surface cyclone tracks eastward
through the central Great Lakes and its weakening/trailing cold
front drops southeastward into the OH Valley by late afternoon.
Regardless of the coverage of high clouds (which could be broken
at times), highs will rebound into the l-m 60s in this regime.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Short range model consensus suggests that zonal flow aloft will
persist on Friday night before backing to the WSW on Saturday. In
the low-levels, a weak cold front will stall in the vicinity of
the TN-KY border on Friday night, with light/variable winds during
the evening hours transitioning to light southeasterly after
Midnight as surface pressures begin to fall across the central
High Plains. As a result, lows will be a few degrees warmer and in
the l-m 40s (with patchy fog possible in a few locations), and
this will be followed by a warm afternoon featuring highs in the
l-m 70s.
Mid-level flow will back further to the southwest and begin to
strengthen on Saturday night, as an amplifying northern stream
trough digs southeastward from the northern Rockies into the
central High Plains. As this occurs, a consolidating surface low
will shift eastward into the MO Valley, with a SSW low-level jet
increasing to 35-45 knots across our CWFA. This will contribute to
a notable increase in low-level moisture by early Sunday morning,
and with a return of low stratus clouds (and perhaps a few
sprinkles of rain) prior to sunrise, lows will only drop into the
l-m 50s.
The northern stream trough will intensify considerably and assume
a negative-tilt as it progresses cyclonically through the MO
Valley and into the southwestern Great Lakes vicinity by 12Z
Monday, supporting steady deepening of its related surface low as
it tracks northeastward across northern IL and into Lower MI by
the end of the short term period. It still appears as if a
strongly-forced band of convection will initiate across the MO
Valley by mid-morning Sunday and expand along the length of the
southeastward surging cold front Sunday afternoon. Present
indications are the the QLCS will intensify Sunday night-early
Monday morning as the front intercepts an increasingly moist warm
sector (featuring dewpoints in the m50s-l60s) and mid-level height
falls of 130-150m overspread the boundary as high-level flow
becomes increasingly diffluent. Although some prefrontal
supercells may evolve Sunday afternoon from the Ozarks
northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes, the setup described
above would favor a linear storm mode as the cold front crosses
our region during the predawn hours Monday morning. That said,
sufficient CAPE (500-1000 J/kg) provided by an EML will exist to
support a risk for widespread damaging winds (perhaps in the 70-80
MPH range) as mid-level flow rapidly strengthens into the 80-100
kt range. With the SSW low-level jet expected to reach 50-55 knots
ahead of the cold front, strong low-level shear will lead to a
risk for line-embedded mesocyclones and tornadoes, as well.
Intense low-level cold advection will begin in the immediate wake
of the front, with temperatures falling quickly into the m30s-l40s
by sunrise.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Low clouds and potential flurries will persist early Monday
morning, but should end by midday. But blustery and very cold air
will continue to advect into the region. 8h temperatures will fall
to -8 to -10C by late afternoon and evening. High temperatures
once low clouds dissipate will only rise into the middle to upper
40s. A hard freeze is forecast Monday night into Tuesday morning
as a ridge of high pressure along the MS River begins to shift
into the TN Valley. Tuesday morning lows will easily drop into the
lower to middle 20s. After highs again in the 40s Tuesday,
overnight lows will drop into the upper 20s to around 30.
Northwesterly 5h flow will persist through Wednesday and Thursday
as an anomalous 5h anticyclone of 594dkm takes shape over AZ. A
large and warm thermal ridge will result over the Rockies into the
Plains, advecting into the OH and TN valleys Wednesday into
Thursday. This will result in a significant warmup with highs in
the 50s Wednesday and 60s on Thursday. Isentropic lift/warm air
advection will generate mainly mid and high level clouds Wednesday
night into Thursday. At this time, no precipitation is foreseen,
but will monitor that trend in coming days as Gulf moisture return
can better be assessed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. Light and variable
wind tonight will turn south-southwest at 10-15kt after 14Z.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...17
FXUS64 KHUN 130442
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
- A strong cold front will bring a high chance of thunderstorms
from late Sunday night-early Monday morning. Severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few
tornadoes appear likely with this event.
- A few snow flurries may occur late Monday morning, with a hard
freeze likely Monday night/Tuesday morning (lows in the lower-
mid 20s).
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the
central/eastern CONUS throughout the near term period, with dry
northwest flow aloft expected to slowly back to the west and
diminish on Friday. In the low-levels, our region remains under
the influence of a narrow surface ridge (extending from the Lower
Rio Grande Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states) this evening, with
mostly clear skies and calm winds supporting efficient
radiational cooling. Although temperatures have already fallen
into the m30s-l40s, a minor increase in southerly flow is
anticipated prior to sunrise as a deepening surface low (related
to a northern stream trough) shifts east-southeastward from the
Red River Valley of the Dakotas/MN into the western Great Lakes.
This, along with an increasing coverage of high clouds in NW flow
aloft, makes the spatial coverage of frost highly uncertain. But,
areas of frost appear likely to develop by sunrise (particularly
in wind- sheltered locations) as temps fall another couple of
degrees.
Shortly after sunrise, low-level flow will veer to SW and
strengthen as the occluding surface cyclone tracks eastward
through the central Great Lakes and its weakening/trailing cold
front drops southeastward into the OH Valley by late afternoon.
Regardless of the coverage of high clouds (which could be broken
at times), highs will rebound into the l-m 60s in this regime.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Short range model consensus suggests that zonal flow aloft will
persist on Friday night before backing to the WSW on Saturday. In
the low-levels, a weak cold front will stall in the vicinity of
the TN-KY border on Friday night, with light/variable winds during
the evening hours transitioning to light southeasterly after
Midnight as surface pressures begin to fall across the central
High Plains. As a result, lows will be a few degrees warmer and in
the l-m 40s (with patchy fog possible in a few locations), and
this will be followed by a warm afternoon featuring highs in the
l-m 70s.
Mid-level flow will back further to the southwest and begin to
strengthen on Saturday night, as an amplifying northern stream
trough digs southeastward from the northern Rockies into the
central High Plains. As this occurs, a consolidating surface low
will shift eastward into the MO Valley, with a SSW low-level jet
increasing to 35-45 knots across our CWFA. This will contribute to
a notable increase in low-level moisture by early Sunday morning,
and with a return of low stratus clouds (and perhaps a few
sprinkles of rain) prior to sunrise, lows will only drop into the
l-m 50s.
The northern stream trough will intensify considerably and assume
a negative-tilt as it progresses cyclonically through the MO
Valley and into the southwestern Great Lakes vicinity by 12Z
Monday, supporting steady deepening of its related surface low as
it tracks northeastward across northern IL and into Lower MI by
the end of the short term period. It still appears as if a
strongly-forced band of convection will initiate across the MO
Valley by mid-morning Sunday and expand along the length of the
southeastward surging cold front Sunday afternoon. Present
indications are the the QLCS will intensify Sunday night-early
Monday morning as the front intercepts an increasingly moist warm
sector (featuring dewpoints in the m50s-l60s) and mid-level height
falls of 130-150m overspread the boundary as high-level flow
becomes increasingly diffluent. Although some prefrontal
supercells may evolve Sunday afternoon from the Ozarks
northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes, the setup described
above would favor a linear storm mode as the cold front crosses
our region during the predawn hours Monday morning. That said,
sufficient CAPE (500-1000 J/kg) provided by an EML will exist to
support a risk for widespread damaging winds (perhaps in the 70-80
MPH range) as mid-level flow rapidly strengthens into the 80-100
kt range. With the SSW low-level jet expected to reach 50-55 knots
ahead of the cold front, strong low-level shear will lead to a
risk for line-embedded mesocyclones and tornadoes, as well.
Intense low-level cold advection will begin in the immediate wake
of the front, with temperatures falling quickly into the m30s-l40s
by sunrise.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Low clouds and potential flurries will persist early Monday
morning, but should end by midday. But blustery and very cold air
will continue to advect into the region. 8h temperatures will fall
to -8 to -10C by late afternoon and evening. High temperatures
once low clouds dissipate will only rise into the middle to upper
40s. A hard freeze is forecast Monday night into Tuesday morning
as a ridge of high pressure along the MS River begins to shift
into the TN Valley. Tuesday morning lows will easily drop into the
lower to middle 20s. After highs again in the 40s Tuesday,
overnight lows will drop into the upper 20s to around 30.
Northwesterly 5h flow will persist through Wednesday and Thursday
as an anomalous 5h anticyclone of 594dkm takes shape over AZ. A
large and warm thermal ridge will result over the Rockies into the
Plains, advecting into the OH and TN valleys Wednesday into
Thursday. This will result in a significant warmup with highs in
the 50s Wednesday and 60s on Thursday. Isentropic lift/warm air
advection will generate mainly mid and high level clouds Wednesday
night into Thursday. At this time, no precipitation is foreseen,
but will monitor that trend in coming days as Gulf moisture return
can better be assessed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. Light and variable
wind tonight will turn south-southwest at 10-15kt after 14Z.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...17
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,863
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- 4,242
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- jackson tennessee
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MEG Memphis Nws really getting bullish now latest afd just came out
A few forecast products are in. CIPS retains very strong values, including for tornadoes. CSU's D3 probs cover a very large area, stretching from Texas all the way up into the Ohio Valley and across the Gulf states into Georgia. Latest NAM run basically maintains serve. Troublingly strong instability and kinematics all the way through 12Z Monday well into Georgia.
Kds86z
Member
This one @tennessee storm chaser ?
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,863
- Reaction score
- 4,242
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
Think new day 3 comes out 230 pm cst