Severe Weather 2026

[CheeselandSkies]

Look like things have downtrended a bit (SPC removed the Day 5 area). Some GFS runs were showing a classic negatively tilted trough with a potent jet streak and LLJ into the upper Midwest (roughly a 4/26/24; or for the fall something like 10/4/13 or 11/12/05 type of setup) for next Wednesday or Thursday, but that seems to have trended less potent and further south.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Look like things have downtrended a bit (SPC removed the Day 5 area). Some GFS runs were showing a classic negatively tilted trough with a potent jet streak and LLJ into the upper Midwest (roughly a 4/26/24; or for the fall something like 10/4/13 or 11/12/05 type of setup) for next Wednesday or Thursday, but that seems to have trended less potent and further south.

Once again the Euro got it first. Current GFS runs are exactly what the trough looked like on the Euro for the last day or two.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Once again the Euro got it first. Current GFS runs are exactly what the trough looked like on the Euro for the last day or two.

Trough still looks decent upstairs for Thursday evening on the 12Z GFS, but the instability just isn't there.

 

[Kds86z]

..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP, DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT, DRYLINE, AND LEE CYCLONE ARE LIKELY
TO AID IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRENCE REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS
INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES, WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING CO LOW WILL BE THE GREATEST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH ANY ONGOING SUPERCELLS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE STORM
COMPLEXES APPEARS POSSIBLE, AT WHICH POINT, THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE.

AN AREAL EXPANSION IN LEVEL-2/SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP, DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT, DRYLINE, AND LEE CYCLONE ARE LIKELY
TO AID IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRENCE REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS
INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES, WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING CO LOW WILL BE THE GREATEST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH ANY ONGOING SUPERCELLS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE STORM
COMPLEXES APPEARS POSSIBLE, AT WHICH POINT, THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE.

AN AREAL EXPANSION IN LEVEL-2/SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

StormNet is liking NY for this one interestingly. Not super high probs but curious what it's onto given globals aren't particularly fixed on that area. I've seen it outperform models though this year quite a few. The NE might be in for it again.