Severe Weather 2026

[CheeselandSkies]

Look like things have downtrended a bit (SPC removed the Day 5 area). Some GFS runs were showing a classic negatively tilted trough with a potent jet streak and LLJ into the upper Midwest (roughly a 4/26/24; or for the fall something like 10/4/13 or 11/12/05 type of setup) for next Wednesday or Thursday, but that seems to have trended less potent and further south.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Look like things have downtrended a bit (SPC removed the Day 5 area). Some GFS runs were showing a classic negatively tilted trough with a potent jet streak and LLJ into the upper Midwest (roughly a 4/26/24; or for the fall something like 10/4/13 or 11/12/05 type of setup) for next Wednesday or Thursday, but that seems to have trended less potent and further south.

Once again the Euro got it first. Current GFS runs are exactly what the trough looked like on the Euro for the last day or two.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Once again the Euro got it first. Current GFS runs are exactly what the trough looked like on the Euro for the last day or two.

Trough still looks decent upstairs for Thursday evening on the 12Z GFS, but the instability just isn't there.