Severe Weather 2026

[CheeselandSkies]

I think we need to watch this evening in southern Wisconsin for a sneaky 2% event. Trends would suggests the ongoing clouds/rain clear out by midday, and the HRRR has scattered cells this evening amidst an area of high 0-3KM MLCAPE and steep lapse rates. The only thing preventing higher confidence IMO is fairly weak low-level SRH (straight-line hodographs), but that 3CAPE could help compensate.

 

[Kds86z]

I think we need to watch this evening in southern Wisconsin for a sneaky 2% event. Trends would suggests the ongoing clouds/rain clear out by midday, and the HRRR has scattered cells this evening amidst an area of high 0-3KM MLCAPE and steep lapse rates. The only thing preventing higher confidence IMO is fairly weak low-level SRH (straight-line hodographs), but that 3CAPE could help compensate.

View attachment 53903

Extended my thread for the enhanced today so that’ll do too thanks

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Saturday looks like the first day I've seen that has no morning convection at all. But we could see that change. The warm sector has a stout EML and areas of NE/IA an SD will need to watch out. StormNet thinking robust probs for NE/IA too. Strong LLJ response could make for long lived supercells with all hazards risk in both sectors.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I think we need to watch this evening in southern Wisconsin for a sneaky 2% event. Trends would suggests the ongoing clouds/rain clear out by midday, and the HRRR has scattered cells this evening amidst an area of high 0-3KM MLCAPE and steep lapse rates. The only thing preventing higher confidence IMO is fairly weak low-level SRH (straight-line hodographs), but that 3CAPE could help compensate.

View attachment 53903

That dry slot and warm nose aloft at 500mb always seems to be a common feature in these setups. Sometimes they don't work and other times they do. Will have to see.