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Severe Weather 2026

akt1985 said:
Strange, but the models completely drop this system next weekend.
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Seems to be trending a couple of days later. Exact timing of individual systems is one of those things that will always bounce around a lot at this range.

Screenshot 2026-02-06 104301.png
 
A lot of the modelling is picking up on the possibility for severe weather mid-month. Seems possible we get active and stay active with regard to opportunities for storms across much of the South all the way up the MSV. Obviously, still way too far out to even start thinking about specifics, but the general signal is there and has been enduring for the past several days.
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Yeah. Sure looks like we're gonna get a severe weather threat in February after all. I should have consider that because there's two analog years of mine that I've been using that did see severe weather in February. I've just had a lot going on lately. Well, look for another winter weather threat a week or two after the potential upcoming severe weather/tornado threat. Just hopefully it'll be all snow next go round.
 
JPWX said:
Yeah. Sure looks like we're gonna get a severe weather threat in February after all. I should have consider that because there's two analog years of mine that I've been using that did see severe weather in February. I've just had a lot going on lately. Well, look for another winter weather threat a week or two after the potential upcoming severe weather/tornado threat. Just hopefully it'll be all snow next go round.
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Do you think the severe weather threat will flip the pattern to a colder one towards the end of the month?
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Even if we miss the severe weather. Man I'm going to enjoy this warm weather after this bitterly cold spell here in Alabama for the last few weeks
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Same here! When you look at the actual numbers, the cold spell doesn't look all that bad. Only three nights in the teens in Birmingham, with the lowest at 13°. That's really not unusual for this area. Until this past week, Birmingham hadn't seen 60° since 1/13. And the 70's expected this week will be the first since 12/28. So, I think the relentless moderately cold to downright cold weather has just seemed endless and worse than maybe it really has been (at least down here... I know people with long power outages in the ice storm areas have been completely miserable).
 
Could someone help me find a good website for the TNI values? (Both current and archived)
 
One thing I can be certain of is that severe weather of some kind will definitely happen somewhere between Valentine's day and the 20th. The intensity is still in question though. The 12z operational AIGFS, GFS, Euro, and AI Euro all have a pretty nasty 500 mb pattern during that time frame. The biggest issue, as is typical with winter setups, is likely to be moisture, especially after the previous pattern obliterated moisture content in the Gulf.
 
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slenker said:
One thing I can be certain of is that severe weather of some kind will definitely happen somewhere between Valentine's day and the 20th. The intensity is still in question though. The 12z operational AIGFS, GFS, Euro, and AI Euro all have a pretty nasty pattern during that time frame. The biggest issue, as is typical with winter setups, is likely to be moisture, especially after the previous pattern obliterated moisture content in the Gulf.
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Yeah , but also can get some moisture tapped up from the Caribbean this time year helps also
 
Models picking out a possible threat right around Valentine's Day from Texas eastward along the Gulf Coast. SPC notes this in their mid-range disco. Question will of course be how much moisture return and instability occurs.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of
the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves
across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across
the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling
aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is
expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.

Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend.
However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across
the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern
Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the
southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow
over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at
least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As
the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the
Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing
thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing
boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the
upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this
system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and
ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/08/2026
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