Here's what I finally found with the TNI:
It has the total by month. Which is probably better in a way
It has the total by month. Which is probably better in a way
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
N0mz
Member
Finally starting to see a decent trough signal for the middle of the month.
RFD66
Member
Still long-term, but what a trof and nice tilt
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I'm just gonna leave a quick reminder to please be mindful of any photos you share here, a lot of people seem to be generating AI model runs/fake SPC outlooks on Facebook and unfortunately it's becoming a very chaotic trend over there. I wouldn't expect any of it to slip on here, but don't be caught off guard by AI fearmongering. Spann posted about it yesterday so just be aware!
00z euro run is impressive for the southeast...nasty look.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Gotta love the 996mb low. And the streaked convection off the EURO lol.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Severe weather is for sure making a return but once again, there is plenty of uncertainty. Even the period beyond the 15th has signals for severe but the deterministic is either spitting out lackluster setups or high end fantasy setups due to the lack of good resources to work with. Mid-late Feb may favor severe weather is all I've got to say. That 00z GFS taken verbatim would be a closely packed, semi discrete arc of supercells similar to 5/21/24 making their way through Iowa. That took me by surprise.
And i don't think it's just Dixie. As much as i said i didn't like the CFS accumulation models, some runs are picking up on the Plains sporadically in different dates with a broad chance at severe weather. Nothing much in terms of specifics but a interesting period awaits us
- Moderator
- #329
What do you want to bet that we have that 15% by tomorrow or Wednesday?
...DISCUSSION...
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX
to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this
period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and
Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to
timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints
will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.
Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the
Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf
Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML
guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the
current forecast strength and track of the associated surface
cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end
potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the
aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic
environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes
15 percent severe delineation at this time.
...DISCUSSION...
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX
to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this
period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and
Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to
timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints
will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.
Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the
Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf
Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML
guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the
current forecast strength and track of the associated surface
cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end
potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the
aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic
environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes
15 percent severe delineation at this time.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Won't happen of course (if for no other reason than I'm scheduled to have that day and the next off so I actually would be able to chase it) but the 0Z GFS depiction for Thursday the 19th is pretty wild for February. Strong instability up into the upper Midwest ahead of a potent trough and surface low.
After events like February 8th two years ago and 2/28/17, I think I've finally learned never say never even when it's still winter up around here.
After events like February 8th two years ago and 2/28/17, I think I've finally learned never say never even when it's still winter up around here.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Absolutely agree, it really took me by surprise seeing such a robust setup that far north. The GFS hasn't pulled such a robust fantasy run like that so far this year so I'll just save it for laughing sake
- Thread starter
- #332
KevinH
Member
I am not sure how much I like this look
- Thread starter
- #333
KevinH
Member
POST pics please!!! lol. Graphics are always helpful
- Thread starter
- #334
KevinH
Member
Yeah this looks kind of nasty. What date is this for?
- Thread starter
- #335
KevinH
Member
Exactly! Dixie does what it wants, when it wants and doesn’t follow “the rules”.
I was planning on pulling the trigger on a thread tonight lol depending on how both the Euro and GFS looks on the runs tonight.
- Thread starter
- #337
KevinH
Member
Love it… I wouldn’t be surprised if there is some model flip flopping though
My notifications are ready for when you pull the trigger. hahahhahahaha
It's a little to early now. But both the GFS and euro show severe weather of some kind. With the euro being the most volatile. I'm not sure how the ensembles look. But I think that there's a good chance for severe weather.
Cips highlights the Mississippi area with a decent percentage on the 5+
Kds86z
Member