Mesoscale Discussion 0057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...southern AL...FL Panhandle...southwest GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 251555Z - 251800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential will likely increase into early afternoon
with a QLCS and embedded supercells capable of producing damaging
winds and tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...Along a pronounced cold front to the south-southwest of
a surface cyclone between TCL and SEM, convective intensities appear
to be increasing to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-frontal cells have
also increased over the past hour, and an increasing severe threat
is anticipated as activity matures over the next 2-3 hours. While
pervasive downstream cloud coverage is limiting boundary-layer
heating in the confined warm-moist sector, 60s surface dew points
are sufficient for weak to modest MLCAPE from Mobile Bay and the
western FL Panhandle northward into south-central AL. This
warm-moist sector will shift east through the afternoon and likely
reach southwest GA to the eastern FL Panhandle. Low-level shear is
quite strong with enlarged hodographs favoring
mesocyclone/mesovortex development. Expectation is for a QLCS to
evolve east through the afternoon with a threat for damaging winds
and brief tornadoes. If semi-discrete supercells can form ahead of
and merge into the QLCS, a longer-tracked tornado or two is
possible.
..Grams/Hart.. 01/25/2026
...Please see
www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30388857 31858758 32418709 32478584 32218462 32008402
31608382 30688419 29788531 30188614 30388857
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
