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Severe Weather 2026

CPC is noting a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least the Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.
 
Thank you @KakashiHatake2000 for posting that. I had completely forgot to take a look at that today.
 
Yesterday's 18Z GFS was an all-time weenie run, with a wound-up storm system tracking from Arkansas to the mid-Atlantic on the 23rd-24th. Dropped 30" to upwards of 60" of snow from St. Louis almost to Philadelphia. Verbatim the warm sector would have supported some severe weather in LA/MS/AL as well. However it was completely gone on the 0Z run. @andyhb
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Yesterday's 18Z GFS was an all-time weenie run, with a wound-up storm system tracking from Arkansas to the mid-Atlantic on the 23rd-24th. Dropped 30" to upwards of 60" of snow from St. Louis almost to Philadelphia. Verbatim the warm sector would have supported some severe weather in LA/MS/AL as well. However it was completely gone on the 0Z run. @andyhb
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yup then 06z came in with a much more realistic scenario from 50ish inches in my area to like 9in
 
Way I see it, might be hard to get any severe weather threat northward except along the Gulf Coast in this pattern. There's just a lot going on in the pattern with potential for either severe storms/heavy rain or winter weather.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Yesterday's 18Z GFS was an all-time weenie run, with a wound-up storm system tracking from Arkansas to the mid-Atlantic on the 23rd-24th. Dropped 30" to upwards of 60" of snow from St. Louis almost to Philadelphia. Verbatim the warm sector would have supported some severe weather in LA/MS/AL as well. However it was completely gone on the 0Z run. @andyhb
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I guess the GFS has already given up on dry January...
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Since we are translating into a El Niño by spring , we could easily have a quieter spring severe season vs last two…. This is going be a very active season for the Midwest and plains for severe wx….
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TNI (Trans Niño Index) seems to be a better indicator for tornadic activity rather than the specific pattern. If you look throughout recorded tornadic history, you can see historic outbreaks in El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral patterns. However, it seems research shows that TNI is a better correlation for tornado activity. Specifically a +TNI. This also agrees with a lot of what Matt G. And Fred talked about last year.

Some ways that frequently yield a +TNI? A decaying La Niña phase or an El Niño onset phase.



Now, is this the ultimate tornado season forecasting hack? Not really, even strongly negative TNIs can be very active (see May 2003). A neutral TNI seems to be where tornadic activity actually yields below average counts. I don’t think we’ll crack the code on tornado forecasting anytime soon, but TNI does seem to put its thumb on the scale somewhat.
 
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